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Reflexivity, Expectations Feedback and Almost Self-fulfilling Equilibria: Economic Theory, Empirical Evidence and Laboratory Experiments

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  • Hommes, C.H.

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

We discuss recent work on bounded rationality and learning in relation to Soros' principles of reflexivity and stress the empirical relevance of non-rational, almost self-fulfilling equilibria in positive feedback systems. We fit a behavioral asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations to the S&P 500 stock market index. Bubble and crash dynamics are triggered by shocks to fundamentals and amplified by agents switching endogenously between a mean-reverting fundamental rule and a trend-following rule, based upon their relative performance. We also discuss learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments, showing that in positive feedback systems individuals coordinate expectations on non-rational, trend-following rules and almost self-fulfilling equilibria with persistent price fluctuations very different from rational equilibria. Economic policy analysis may be much more effective by focussing on efficiency and welfare gains in correcting mispricing along almost self-fulfilling equilibria.

Suggested Citation

  • Hommes, C.H., 2013. "Reflexivity, Expectations Feedback and Almost Self-fulfilling Equilibria: Economic Theory, Empirical Evidence and Laboratory Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-19, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:13-19
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    Cited by:

    1. Ling Zhang & Wenlong Bian & Hao Zhang, 2019. "Dissecting the myth of the house price in Chinese metropolises: allowing for behavioral heterogeneity among investors," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(4), pages 721-740, December.
    2. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars, 2019. "When speculators meet suppliers: Positive versus negative feedback in experimental housing markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    4. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    5. Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 626-673.
    6. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "The New Keynesian framework for a small open economy with structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Peru," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 13-25.
    7. Katarina Juselius, 2017. "Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-20, July.
    8. Cars Hommes, 2017. "From Self-Fulfilling Mistakes to Behavioral Learning Equilibria," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 97-123, Springer.
    9. da Gama Batista, João & Massaro, Domenico & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Challet, Damien & Hommes, Cars, 2017. "Do investors trade too much? A laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 18-34.
    10. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2021. "Managing self-organization of expectations through monetary policy: A macro experiment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-186.
    11. Hefti, Andreas, 2016. "On the relationship between uniqueness and stability in sum-aggregative, symmetric and general differentiable games," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 83-96.
    12. Bao, Te & Corgnet, Brice & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Zhu, Jiahua, 2023. "Predicting the unpredictable: New experimental evidence on forecasting random walks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    14. Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2019. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," BERG Working Paper Series 141, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    15. Agliari, Anna & Hommes, Cars H. & Pecora, Nicolò, 2016. "Path dependent coordination of expectations in asset pricing experiments: A behavioral explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 15-28.
    16. Olivér Kovács, 2019. "Grounding Complexity Economics in Framing Modern Governance," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 69(4), pages 571-594, December.
    17. Bekiros, Stelios & Jlassi, Mouna & Lucey, Brian & Naoui, Kamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Herding behavior, market sentiment and volatility: Will the bubble resume?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 107-131.
    18. Kinda Hachem & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2017. "Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1673-1713, December.
    19. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    20. Katarina Juselius & Katrin Assenmacher, 2014. "Real exchange rate persistence: the case of the Swiss franc-US dollar rate," Discussion Papers 14-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    21. Juselius, Katarina & Dimelis, Sophia, 2019. "The Greek crisis: A story of self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-22.
    22. Emanuele Citera & Lino Sau, 2021. "Reflexivity, Financial Instability and Monetary Policy: A ‘Convention-Based’ Approach," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 327-343, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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