IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/smt/wpaper/2012-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Probabilistic Political Viability: A Methodology for Predictive Political Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Susan Stratton Sayre

    (Department of Economics, Smith College)

  • Rachel Goodhue
  • Leo Simon

Abstract

Currently available political economic tools are not very useful for predicting the outcomes of real-world policy problems. Researchers have limited information on which to assign parameters to the mappings from policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. We present a method for evaluating the viability of political alternatives in complex settings and apply it to an ongoing California water policy debate. Certain options would be "robustly politically viable" if stakeholder groups trusted that they would be implemented as negotiated. Once we incorporate institutional mistrust into the model, none of the alternatives are robustly politically viable.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan Stratton Sayre & Rachel Goodhue & Leo Simon, "undated". "Probabilistic Political Viability: A Methodology for Predictive Political Economy," Working Papers 2012-01, Smith College, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:smt:wpaper:2012-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.smith.edu/econ/workingpaper/pdfs/Sayre1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. I. Gilboa & W. A. Postlewaite & D. Schmeidler, 2009. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 10.
    2. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1980. "A Rehabilitation of the Principle of Insufficient Reason," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(3), pages 493-506.
    4. D. A. Stainforth & T. Aina & C. Christensen & M. Collins & N. Faull & D. J. Frame & J. A. Kettleborough & S. Knight & A. Martin & J. M. Murphy & C. Piani & D. Sexton & L. A. Smith & R. A. Spicer & A. , 2005. "Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7024), pages 403-406, January.
    5. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 5, pages 145-154, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Shaw, W. Douglass & Woodward, Richard T., 2008. "Why environmental and resource economists should care about non-expected utility models," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 66-89, January.
    7. Richard T. Woodward & W. Douglass Shaw, 2008. "Allocating Resources in an Uncertain World: Water Management and Endangered Species," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 593-605.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Graeme J. Doole & David J. Pannell, 2011. "Evaluating environmental policies under uncertainty through application of robust nonlinear programming," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(4), pages 469-486, October.
    2. Loic Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics," Working Papers 616, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Thomas D. Pol & Ekko C. Ierland & Silke Gabbert, 2017. "Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 267-285, February.
    4. Aldred, Jonathan, 2013. "Justifying precautionary policies: Incommensurability and uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 132-140.
    5. Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 475-501, November.
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
    7. Diederik Aerts & Emmanuel Haven & Sandro Sozzo, 2018. "A proposal to extend expected utility in a quantum probabilistic framework," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 1079-1109, June.
    8. Loïc Berger & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2017. "Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks Under Model Uncertainty Aversion," Post-Print hal-03027150, HAL.
    9. Diederik Aerts & Emmanuel Haven & Sandro Sozzo, 2016. "A Proposal to Extend Expected Utility in a Quantum Probabilistic Framework," Papers 1612.08583, arXiv.org.
    10. Anastasios Xepapadeas & Catarina Roseta-Palma, 2013. "Instabilities and robust control in natural resource management," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(3), pages 161-180, December.
    11. Lars Peter Hansen, 2013. "Challenges in Identifying and Measuring Systemic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 15-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Pauline Barrieu & Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, 2009. "Economic Policy when Models Disagree," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-03, CIRANO.
    13. Lars Peter Hansen, 2013. "Challenges in Identifying and Measuring Systemic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 15-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Loïc Berger & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2017. "Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks Under Model Uncertainty Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 749-765, March.
    15. Paul Viefers, 2012. "Should I Stay or Should I Go?: A Laboratory Analysis of Investment Opportunities under Ambiguity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1228, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2022. "Structured ambiguity and model misspecification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    17. Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "A novel approach to asset pricing with choice of probability measures," CARF F-Series CARF-F-471, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Jan 2021.
    18. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    19. Johannes Emmerling & Vassiliki Manoussi & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2016. "Climate Engineering under Deep Uncertainty and Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2016.52, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Claire Crawford & Lorraine Dearden & Ellen Greaves, 2013. "Identifying the drivers of month of birth differences in educational attainment," DoQSS Working Papers 13-07, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:smt:wpaper:2012-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elizabeth Savoca (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.smith.edu/econ/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.