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The effect of the psychological factor among companies onto the NAIRU and economic cycle on the labour market

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  • Emilie Ja?ová

    (University of Economics in Prague)

Abstract

The paper focuses on mapping the uncertainties in real economy. It develops a Central European parallel to the VIX fear and uncertainty index in condition of Hungary and Poland. It extends the number of representatives of the demand shock in the standard Gordon?s Triangle model with the index of uncertainty perception among companies. The Kalman filter will be used for estimating the value of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment and economic cycle without and with the effect of the psychological factor among companies. We verify results with the corresponding real economy data. Five scenarios will describe the relationship between the uncertainty perception among companies and the unemployment rate. The analysis quantifies the intensity of the effect of the psychological factor on the supply side on the labour market in Hungary and Poland. It will outline the consequences for the economic policymakers too.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilie Ja?ová, 2016. "The effect of the psychological factor among companies onto the NAIRU and economic cycle on the labour market," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5307026, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:iacpro:5307026
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "A Quartet of Semigroups for Model Specification, Robustness, Prices of Risk, and Model Detection," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 4, pages 83-143, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Kahneman, Daniel, 2002. "Maps of Bounded Rationality," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2002-4, Nobel Prize Committee.
    6. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Index of uncertainty perception among companies; Phillips Curve; NAIRU; Kalman filter; Unemployment gap.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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