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Analysis of substitution changes in the Phillips curve in V4 countries over the course of economic cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Bozena Kaderabkova

    (University of Economics in Prague, Fakulty of Economics)

  • Emilie Jasova

    (University of Economics in Prague, Fakulty of Economics)

  • Robert Holman

    (Economic University in Prague)

Abstract

The aim of the article is to determine the nature and intensity of the slope of the Phillips curves (PCs) for the workers vulnerable to unemployment in the individual phases of the economic cycle between 2000 and 2016 in the Visegrad Group (V4). We use linear regressions to substitute the household deflator of unemployment. In order to avoid a reduction in the number of observations and to reduce the validity of the estimates, which is characteristic of the Break model, we modify the one-year model of the categorical variable phase of the cycle. The results obtained are compared with the findings of international authors. Throughout the monitored period, a statistically significant negative slope of the PC was found in all V4 countries, with the highest intensity in the Czech Republic and the lowest in Hungary. The extrapolation of the trend of the current development of the phases of the economic cycle indicates the growth of the statistically confirmed negative slope of the PC in the Czech Republic, its return to Slovakia, its origin in Hungary and the return of positive inclination in Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • Bozena Kaderabkova & Emilie Jasova & Robert Holman, 2020. "Analysis of substitution changes in the Phillips curve in V4 countries over the course of economic cycles," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 39-54, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:jijoes:v:9:y:2020:i:2:p:39-54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; unemployment rate by gender; age and education; phase of the economic cycle; countries of V4;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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