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Short-run Macroeconomic Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy Changes

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  • Piotr Bujak
  • Joanna Siwinska-Gorzelak

Abstract

The standard Keynesian view of fiscal policy holds that in short-run fiscal adjustments (expansions) reduce (stimulate) aggregate demand and due to sticky wages, prices or other market rigidities, these demand shifts affect the factors of production and output. These conventional predictions have been challenged by the observation of episodes of perverse effects of fiscal policy – so called “non-Keynesian” effects. This paper reassess the short-run consequences of fiscal policy. We provide evidence that consumption reacts in a non-linear fashion to discretionary fiscal policy changes. The results of our estimations show that households tend to behave in non-Keynesian manner when the fiscal situation of a country is bad, i.e. when public debt or fiscal deficit is large, while Keynesian behavior dominates, when the fiscal situation is sound. Our results suggest that, similarly to OECD countries, consumption function does not react in linear fashion to changes in fiscal policy also in transition economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Bujak & Joanna Siwinska-Gorzelak, 2003. "Short-run Macroeconomic Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy Changes," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0261, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0261
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. L. Pozzi & F. Heylen & M. Dossche, 2002. "Government debt and the excess sensitivity of private consumption to current income: an empirical analysis for OECD countries," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 02/155, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Perotti, Roberto, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 168, European Central Bank.
    3. Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 2002/208, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    5. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2002. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Activity During Recessions in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2002/087, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2017. "How large are fiscal multipliers in Turkey?," EconStor Preprints 162763, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Neicheva, Maria, 2007. "Non-Keynesian effects of Government Spending: Some implications for the Stability and Growth Pact," MPRA Paper 5277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Marek Dabrowski & Malgorzata Antczak & Michal Gorzelak, 2006. "Fiscal Challenges Facing the New Member States," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(2), pages 252-276, June.
    4. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2015. "Growth enhancing effect of discretionary fiscal policy shocks: Keynesian, Weak Keynesian or Non-Keynesian?," MPRA Paper 65976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2015.
    5. Vladimir Vladimirov & Maria Neicheva, 2008. "The Stabilizing Role of Fiscal Policy: Theoretical Background and Empirical Evidence," IBSU Scientific Journal, International Black Sea University, vol. 2(1), pages 7-22.
    6. Maria Neycheva, 2007. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Cumulative Production in the Bulgarian Economy," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 82-101.
    7. Marek Dabrowski, 2012. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Determinants of the Eurozone Crisis and its Resolution," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 443, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Marek Dabrowski, 2006. "A Strategy for EMU Enlargement," Springer Books, in: Marek Dabrowski & Jacek Rostowski (ed.), The Eastern Enlargement of the Eurozone, chapter 0, pages 199-225, Springer.
    9. Maria Neicheva, 2006. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Government Expenditure on Output in Bulgaria: An HP Filter Approach," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    10. Wissem Khanfir, 2016. "Threshold effect of fiscal policy on private consumption : Evidence from Tunisia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(59), pages 95-110, March.

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    Keywords

    fiscal policy; Non-Keynesian effects;

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