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The effects of tax policy on financial markets: G3 evidence

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  • K. Peren Arin
  • Abdullah Mamun
  • Nanda Purushothman

Abstract

We investigate the effects of various tax policy innovations on stock market returns. By using a vector autoregressive model that controls for the mutual causality between fiscal policy and financial market performance, we test whether financial markets serve as a transmission mechanism for tax policy innovations. Our findings indicate that indirect taxes have a larger effect on market returns than do labor taxes. Further, corporate tax innovations do not have any statistically significant effect on stock returns. We consider that this finding is a result of a firm's ability to switch between equity financing and bond financing.

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  • K. Peren Arin & Abdullah Mamun & Nanda Purushothman, 2009. "The effects of tax policy on financial markets: G3 evidence," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 33-46, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:33-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2008.05.001
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    2. Igbinedion Sunday Osahon & Oriakhi Dickson, 2013. "Fiscal Deficits And Stock Prices In Nigeria: An Empirical Evidence," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 22(1), pages 259-274, june.
    3. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2012. "Fiscal policy and asset price volatility," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 123-156, February.
    4. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 358-362.
    5. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Asset price volatility and government revenue," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2532-2543.
    6. Afonso, António & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1871-1890, July.
    7. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Mahendhiran S. Nair & John H. Hall, 2022. "The dynamics between financial market development, taxation propensity, and economic growth: a study of OECD and non-OECD countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1503-1534, June.
    8. Naeem Akram, 2016. "Do Financial Sector Activities Affect Tax Revenue in Pakistan?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 153-169, July-Dec.
    9. Ilhami Gunduz, 2021. "Stock market transmission channel of monetary policy: Empirical evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6421-6443, October.
    10. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    11. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Muhammad Irfan Javaid Attari & Roshaiza Taha & Muhammad Imran Farooq, 2014. "Tax Revenue, Stock Market and Economic Growth of Pakistan," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 5(5), pages 136-148, October.
    13. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Fiscal Policy And Asset Prices," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 154-177, April.
    14. Duy-Tung Bui, 2018. "Fiscal policy and national saving in emerging Asia: challenge or opportunity?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 305-322, August.
    15. Bogdan Dima & Ștefana Maria Dima, 2024. "The non-linear impact of monetary policy on shifts in economic policy uncertainty: evidence from the United States of America," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 755-781, August.
    16. BUI, Duy-Tung & LLORCA, Matthieu & BUI, Thi Mai Hoai, 2018. "Dynamics between stock market movements and fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from emerging Asian economies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 65-74.
    17. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2011. "The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 33-58, February.
    18. Taha, Roshaiza & Colombage, Sisira R.N. & Maslyuk, Svetlana & Nanthakumar, Loganathan, 2013. "Does financial system activity affect tax revenue in Malaysia? Bounds testing and causality approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 147-157.
    19. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to Legislated Tax Changes: Evidence from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202047, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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