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Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Alain Kabundi
  • Elmarie Nel
  • Franz Ruch

Abstract

This paper uses nowcasting to forecast real GDP growth in South Africa from 2010Q1 to 2014Q3 in real time. Such an approach exploits the ‡ow of high-frequency information underlying the state of the economy. It overcomes one of the major challenges faced by forecasters, policymakers, and economic agents – having a clear view of the […]

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 581, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    • Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:581
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chien-jung Ting & Yi-Long Hsiao & Rui-jun Su, 2022. "Application of the Real-Time Tourism Data in Nowcasting the Service Consumption in Taiwan," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(4), pages 1-4.
    2. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wolszczak-Derlacz Joanna, 2014. "The Impact Of Domestic And Foreign Competition On Sectoral Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(S1), pages 110-131, December.
    4. Sara Amoroso & Peter M. Kort & Bertrand Melenberg & Joseph Plasmans & Mark Vancauteren, 2010. "Firm Level Productivity under Imperfect Competition in Output and Labor Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 3082, CESifo.
    5. Saten Kumar & Gail Pacheco & Stephanié Rossouw, 2010. "How to Increase the Growth Rate in South Africa?," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_31, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    6. Evžen Kočenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(3), pages 197-220, May.
    7. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    8. Chien-jung Ting & Yi-Long Hsiao, 2022. "Nowcasting the GDP in Taiwan and the Real-Time Tourism Data," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(3), pages 1-2.
    9. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    10. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
    11. Lisa-Cheree Martin, 2019. "Machine Learning vs Traditional Forecasting Methods: An Application to South African GDP," Working Papers 12/2019, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Delfin Go & Marna Kearney & Vijdan Korman & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2010. "Wage Subsidy and Labour Market Flexibility in South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 1481-1502.
    13. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah, 2017. "GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3880-3890, August.
    14. Raffaele Mattera & Michelangelo Misuraca & Maria Spano & Germana Scepi, 2023. "Mixed frequency composite indicators for measuring public sentiment in the EU," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2357-2382, June.
    15. Byron Botha & Geordie Reid & Tim Olds & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2021. "Nowcasting South African GDP using a suite of statistical models," Working Papers 11001, South African Reserve Bank.
    16. Byron Botha & Tim Olds & Geordie Reid & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2021. "Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 526-554, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian analysis; econometric modelling; economic growth; Macroeconomic Models; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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