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GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy

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  • Ashwin Madhou
  • Tayushma Sewak
  • Imad Moosa
  • Vikash Ramiah

Abstract

Despite data limitations, an attempt is made to find out if a GDP nowcasting model can provide reliable forecasts for a small open economy. Two competing Bayesian vector autoregressive models are tested rigorously to obtain the optimal model by minimizing in-sample forecasting errors. The main finding of this study is that GDP nowcasting can produce reliable results for a small open economy despite the unavailability of sufficient data sets and the lack of high frequency indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah, 2017. "GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3880-3890, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:38:p:3880-3890
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1270417
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandra Riedl & Julia Wörz, 2018. "A simple approach to nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/18, pages 56-74.

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