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ARMA-GARCH Models: Bayes Estimation Versus MLE, and Bayes Non-stationarity Test

Author

Listed:
  • Teruo Nakatsuma

    (Rutgers University)

  • Hiroki Tsurumi

    (Rutgers University)

Abstract

We compare small-sample properties of Bayes estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of ARMA-GARCH models. Our Monte Carlo experiments indicate that in small sample, the Bayes estimator beats the MLE. We also develop a Bayes method of testing strict stationarity and ergodicity of the conditional variance in the GARCH(1,1) process, near epoch depencenve (NED), and finiteness of unconditional moments of the GARCH(1,1) process by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) mehtod. We apply this method to test these properties in the ARMA-GARCH models of weekly foreign exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Teruo Nakatsuma & Hiroki Tsurumi, 1996. "ARMA-GARCH Models: Bayes Estimation Versus MLE, and Bayes Non-stationarity Test," Departmental Working Papers 199619, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:199619
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-1339, November.
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    3. Kleibergen, F & Van Dijk, H K, 1993. "Non-stationarity in GARCH Models: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 41-61, Suppl. De.
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    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E., 1991. "GARCH(1, 1) processes are near epoch dependent," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 181-186, June.
    7. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1995. "Finite-Sample Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in GARCH(1,1) and IGARCH(1,1) Models: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, January.
    8. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 318-334, September.
    9. Nakatsuma, Teruo, 2000. "Bayesian analysis of ARMA-GARCH models: A Markov chain sampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 57-69, March.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lennart F. Hoogerheide & David Ardia & Nienke Corre, 2011. "Stock Index Returns' Density Prediction using GARCH Models: Frequentist or Bayesian Estimation?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-020/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Hoogerheide, Lennart F. & Ardia, David & Corré, Nienke, 2012. "Density prediction of stock index returns using GARCH models: Frequentist or Bayesian estimation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 322-325.
    3. Greyserman, Alex & Jones, Douglas H. & Strawderman, William E., 2006. "Portfolio selection using hierarchical Bayesian analysis and MCMC methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 669-678, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH; Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC); Near Epoch Dependence (NED);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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