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Bayesian Estimation of ARMA-GARCH Model of Weekly Foreign Exchange Rates

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  • Teruo Nakatsuma
  • Hiroki Tsurumi

Abstract

Three Bayesian methods (Markov chain Monte Carlo, Laplace approximation and quadrature formula) are developed to estimate the parameters of the ARMA-GARCH model. The ARMA-GARCH model is applied to weekly foreign exchange rate data of five major currencies, and their stochastic volatilities are judged by the posterior probabilities of stationarity and other conditions. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Teruo Nakatsuma & Hiroki Tsurumi, 1999. "Bayesian Estimation of ARMA-GARCH Model of Weekly Foreign Exchange Rates," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 6(1), pages 71-84, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:6:y:1999:i:1:p:71-84
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1010058509622
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-1339, November.
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    7. Nakatsuma, Teruo, 2000. "Bayesian analysis of ARMA-GARCH models: A Markov chain sampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 57-69, March.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ardia, David & Hoogerheide, Lennart F., 2010. "Efficient Bayesian estimation and combination of GARCH-type models," MPRA Paper 22919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Goldman Elena & Tsurumi Hiroki, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of a Doubly Truncated ARMA-GARCH Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-38, June.
    3. Zhang, Xingfa & Zhang, Rongmao & Li, Yuan & Ling, Shiqing, 2022. "LADE-based inferences for autoregressive models with heavy-tailed G-GARCH(1, 1) noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 228-240.

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