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Income Uncertainty and Aggregate Consumption

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  • L. POZZI

Abstract

We investigate the relevance of aggregate and consumer-specific income uncertainty for aggregate consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of income risk on consumption changes is decomposed into an aggregate and into a consumer-specific part. Empirically, aggregate risk is modelled through a GARCH process on aggregate income shocks and individual risk is modelled as an unobserved component and obtained through Kalman filtering. Our results suggest that aggregate income risk explains a negligible fraction of the variance of aggregate consumption changes. A more important part of aggregate consumption changes is explained by the unobserved component. The interpretation of this component as reflecting consumer-specific income risk is supported by the finding that it is negatively affected by received consumer transfers.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income Uncertainty and Aggregate Consumption," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/334, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/334
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    File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_05_334.pdf
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    12. M. Knockaert & A. Lockett & B. Clarysse & M. Wright, 2005. "Do human capital and fund characteristics drive follow-up behaviour of early stage high tech VCs?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/325, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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    14. M. Vanhoucke & D. Debels, 2005. "The Discrete Time/Cost Trade-Off Problem Under Various Assumptions Exact And Heuristic Procedures," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/314, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    15. G. Poels & A. Maes & F. Gailly, 2005. "User Attitudes towards Pattern-Based Enterprise Information Models: A Replicated Experiment with REA Diagrams," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/315, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. M. Buelens & D. Bouckenooghe & D. De Clercq & A. Willem, 2005. "An Assessment of Validity in Small Business and Entrepreneurship Research," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/328, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. G. Poels & F. Gailly & A. Maes & R. Paemeleire, 2005. "Object Class or Association Class? Testing the User Effect on Cardinality Interpretation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/323, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    18. P. Windels & J. Christiaens, 2005. "Management Reform in Flemish Local Authorities: Testing the Institutional Framework," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/331, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    19. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income uncertainty and aggregate consumption," Working Paper Research 77, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. I. Vermeir & M. Geuens, 2005. "Need for Closure and Youngsters’ Leisure Time Preferences," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/318, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    21. A. Heirman & B. Clarysse, 2005. "The imprinting effect of initial resources and market strategy on the early growth path of start-Ups," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/310, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    22. S. CLAEYS & G. LANINE & K. SCHOORs, 2005. "Bank Supervision Russian Style: Rules vs Enforcement and Tacit Objectives," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/307, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    23. D. Vantomme & M. Geuens & S. Dewitte, 2005. "How to Portray Men and Women in Advertisements? Explicit and Implicit Evaluations of Ads Depicting Different Gender Roles," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/319, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    24. W. Buckinx & G. Verstraeten & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "Predicting Customer Loyalty Using The Internal Transactional Database," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/324, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    25. W. Buckinx & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "Assessing and exploiting the profit function by modeling the net impact of targeted marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/330, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    26. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. A. Maes & G. Poels & F. Gailly & R. Paemeleire, 2005. "Measuring User Beliefs and Attitudes towards Conceptual Models: A Factor and Structural Equation Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/311, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    28. B. Maenhout & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "An Electromagnetic Meta-Heuristic for the Nurse Scheduling Problem," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/316, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    29. E. Labro & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "A simulation analysis of interactions between errors in costing system design," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/333, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Vanhoucke & B. Maenhout, 2005. "Characterisation and Generation of Nurse Scheduling Problem Instances," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/339, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Jan Lepoutre & Nikolay Dentchev & Aimé Heene, 2007. "Dealing With Uncertainties When Governing CSR Policies," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 391-408, July.
    3. H. Ooghe & C. Spaenjers & P. Vandermoere, 2005. "Business failure prediction: simple-intuitive models versus statistical models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/338, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Yu-Fu Chen & Hassan Molana, 2022. "Solving the Life-Cycle Model with Labour Income Uncertainty: Some Implications of Income Volatility for Consumption Plan," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 303, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    5. B. Maenhout & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "New Computational Results for the Nurse Scheduling Problem: A Scatter Search Algorithm," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/341, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. J. Albrecht & M. Neyt & T. Verbeke, 2005. "Bureaucratisation and the growth of health care expenditures in Europe," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/335, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring Inflation Persistence: A Structural Time Series Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 459, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. N. Geeroms & P. Van Kenhove & W. Verbeke, 2005. "Health Advertising to promote Fruit and Vegetable Intake: Application of need-related Health Audience Segmentation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/336, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    income uncertainty; consumption; precaution; state space models; GARCH errors; unobserved component; Bayesian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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