IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rtv/ceisrp/34.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Observed and 'Fundamental' Price Earning Ratios: A Comparative Analysis of High-tech Stock Evaluation in the US and in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Becchetti

    (University of Rome II - Faculty of Economics)

  • Michele Bagella

    (University of Rome II - Faculty of Economics)

  • Fabrizio Adriani

    (University of Rome II - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS))

Abstract

By assuming that a large share of investors (which we call fundamentalists) follows a fundamental approach to stock picking, we build a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and test on a sample of high-tech stocks whether the strong and the weak version of the model are supported by data from the US and European stock markets. Empirical results show that "fundamental" earning price ratios explain a significant share of cross sectional variation of the observed E/P ratios, with other additional variables being only partially and weakly relevant. Within this general framework, valid both for Europe and the US, empirical results outline significant differences between the two markets. The most relevant of them is that the relationship between observed and fundamental E/P ratios is much weaker in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Becchetti & Michele Bagella & Fabrizio Adriani, 2003. "Observed and 'Fundamental' Price Earning Ratios: A Comparative Analysis of High-tech Stock Evaluation in the US and in Europe," CEIS Research Paper 34, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ceistorvergata.it/RePEc/rpaper/No-34-Bagella,Becchetti,Adriani.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1563-1587 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1975-1999 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    4. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-175, April.
    5. H. Kent Baker & Gary E. Powell & Daniel G. Weaver, 1999. "Does NYSE Listing Affect Firm Visibility?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 28(2), Summer.
    6. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    7. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
    9. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    10. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
    11. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    12. Charles M. C. Lee & James Myers & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 1999. "What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1693-1741, October.
    13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    14. S. Baranzoni & P. Bianchi & L. Lambertini, 2000. "Multiproduct Firms, Product Differentiation, and Market Structure," Working Papers 368, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    15. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1995. "A welfare comparison of intermediaries and financial markets in Germany and the US," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 179-209, February.
    16. Bakera, H. Kent & Powell, Gary E. & Weaver, Daniel G., 1999. "The visibility effects of Amex listing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 341-361.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:135-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ball, Ray, 1978. "Anomalies in relationships between securities' yields and yield-surrogates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 103-126.
    19. Michael Firth & Michael Gift, 1999. "An international comparison of analysis' earnings forecast accuracy," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 56-64, February.
    20. Franke, Reiner & Sethi, Rajiv, 1998. "Cautious trend-seeking and complex asset price dynamics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 61-79, March.
    21. Pilbeam, Keith, 1995. "The Profitability of Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market: Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Simpletons," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 437-452, July.
    22. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    23. repec:bla:econom:v:55:y:1988:i:220:p:437-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Rao, Cherukuri U & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1971. "Leverage and the Cost of Capital in a Less Developed Capital Market: Comment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 777-782, June.
    25. Penman, SH, 1996. "The articulation of price-earnings ratios and market-to-book ratios and the evaluation of growth," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 235-259.
    26. Chung, Kee H. & Jo, Hoje, 1996. "The Impact of Security Analysts' Monitoring and Marketing Functions on the Market Value of Firms," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 493-512, December.
    27. John G. Cragg & Burton G. Malkiel, 1982. "Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number crag82-1.
    28. Brennan, Michael J & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 1993. "Investment Analysis and the Adjustment of Stock Prices to Common Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 799-824.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michele Bagella & Leonardo Becchetti & Rocco Ciciretti, 2007. "Market vs. analysts reaction: the effect of aggregate and firm-specific news," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 299-312.
    2. Leonardo Becchetti & Stefania Di Giacomo, 2007. "Deviations from Fundamentals in US and EU Stock Markets: A Comparative Analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-226.
    3. Michele Bagella & Leonardo Becchetti & Rocco Ciciretti, 2007. "Earning Forecast Error in US and European Stock Markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 105-122.
    4. Ming-Chi Tsai & Ching-Hsue Cheng & Meei-Ing Tsai & Huei-Yuan Shiu, 2018. "Forecasting leading industry stock prices based on a hybrid time-series forecast model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Ahmed, Mohamed S. & Alhadab, Mohammad, 2020. "Momentum, asymmetric volatility and idiosyncratic risk-momentum relation: Does technology-sector matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 355-371.
    6. Laura Arenas & Ana Maria Gil-Lafuente, 2021. "Regime Switching in High-Tech ETFs: Idiosyncratic Volatility and Return," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-25, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leonardo Becchetti & Stefania Di Giacomo, 2007. "Deviations from Fundamentals in US and EU Stock Markets: A Comparative Analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-226.
    2. Leonardo Becchetti & Fabrizio Adriani, 2004. "Do high-tech stock prices revert to their 'fundamental' value?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 461-476.
    3. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    4. Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 196-224.
    5. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    6. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    7. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    8. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    9. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    10. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    11. Greenwood, Robin, 2005. "Short- and long-term demand curves for stocks: theory and evidence on the dynamics of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 607-649, March.
    12. Jordi Mondria & Xavier Vives & Liyan Yang, 2022. "Costly Interpretation of Asset Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 52-74, January.
    13. Jang Youn Cho, 1994. "Determinants Of Earnings‐Price Ratios: A Reexamination," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), pages 105-120, March.
    14. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    15. Michele Bagella & Leonardo Becchetti & Rocco Ciciretti, 2007. "Market vs. analysts reaction: the effect of aggregate and firm-specific news," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 299-312.
    16. Tai, Chung-Ching & Chen, Shu-Heng & Yang, Lee-Xieng, 2018. "Cognitive ability and earnings performance: Evidence from double auction market experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 409-440.
    17. Raquel Almeida Ramos & Federico Bassi & Dany Lang, 2020. "Bet against the trend and cash in profits," CEPN Working Papers halshs-02956879, HAL.
    18. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
    19. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    20. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial market microstructure; asset pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Barbara Piazzi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csrotit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.