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Earning Forecast Error in US and European Stock Markets

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  • Michele Bagella
  • Leonardo Becchetti
  • Rocco Ciciretti

Abstract

The paper investigates the dynamics and determinants of the earning forecast bias in two (US and Eurozone) stock samples matched by size and industry affiliation. Evidence is found that the European bias is significantly higher in absolute terms, irrespective of the year and the distance from the release date, with the exception of the 1997-2000 period in which US stocks are more optimistically valued. Cross-market differences persist when they are regressed, in a panel GMM estimate, on various controls such as the number of individual forecasts and their standard deviation for any considered stock, with the latter being significantly lower in the US market. Finally, it is observed that a convergence process is at work in both markets, with the bias becoming progressively lower as the release date gets closer.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Bagella & Leonardo Becchetti & Rocco Ciciretti, 2007. "Earning Forecast Error in US and European Stock Markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 105-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:13:y:2007:i:2:p:105-122
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470600762507
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Flora Muiño & Marco Trombetta, 2009. "Does graph disclosure bias reduce the cost of equity capital?," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 83-102.

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