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Trade Effects of the EU–Korea Free Trade Agreement: A Comparative Analysis of Expected and Observed Outcomes

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  • Forizs, Virág
  • Nilsson, Lars

Abstract

Trade policy is being increasingly scrutinized by various stakeholders, and trade has become a contentious issue in the general public debate. Some observers claim that estimated positive impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) are exaggerated and that effects of FTAs are rather more likely to be negative. But relatively few ex post assessments of EU FTAs have been carried out to shed light on the issue. Against this background, the present short article compares the economic assessment of the negotiated outcome of the EU–Korea FTA with observed data. Our results point to sound projections against observed data at the aggregate level and in the largest sectors, such as machinery, as opposed to trade in less important sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Forizs, Virág & Nilsson, Lars, 2017. "Trade Effects of the EU–Korea Free Trade Agreement: A Comparative Analysis of Expected and Observed Outcomes," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 18(1), July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ecjilt:260370
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.260370
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/260370/files/Forizs-Nilsson18-1lay.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeronim Capaldo, 2014. "The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability," GDAE Working Papers 14-03, GDAE, Tufts University.
    2. Csilla Lakatos & Lars Nilsson, 2017. "The EU-Korea FTA: anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 179-198, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yi, Chae-Deug, 2020. "The computable general equilibrium analysis of the reduction in tariffs and non-tariff measures within the Korea-Japan-European Union free trade agreement," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    2. Annalisa Zezza & Federica Demaria & Maria Rosaria Pupo d'Andrea & Jo Swinnen & Giulia Meloni & Senne Vandevelde & Alessandro Olper & Daniele Curzi & Valentina Raimondi & Sophie Drogue, 2018. "Research for AGRI Committee - Agricultural trade: assessing reciprocity of standards," Working Papers hal-02787948, HAL.
    3. Nilsson, Lars, 2019. "Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2019-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.

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