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The Profitability of Lead-Lag Arbitrage at High-Frequency

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  • Poutré, Cédric

    (University of Montreal)

  • Dionne, Georges

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

  • Yergeau, Gabriel

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

Abstract

Any lead-lag effect in an asset pair implies the future returns on the lagging asset have the potential to be predicted from past and present prices of the leader, thus creating statistical arbitrage opportunities. We utilize robust lead-lag indicators to uncover the origin of price discovery and we propose an econometric model exploiting that effect with level 1 data of limit order books (LOB). We also develop a high-frequency trading strategy based on the model predictions to capture arbitrage opportunities. The framework is then evaluated on six months of DAX 30 cross-listed stocks’ LOB data obtained from three European exchanges in 2013: Xetra, Chi-X, and BATS. We show that a high-frequency trader can profit from lead-lag relationships because of predictability, even when trading costs, latency d execution-related risks are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Poutré, Cédric & Dionne, Georges & Yergeau, Gabriel, 2022. "The Profitability of Lead-Lag Arbitrage at High-Frequency," Working Papers 22-5, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2022_005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lead-lag relationship; High-frequency trading; Statistical arbitrage; Limit order book; Cross-listed stocks; Econometric models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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