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An alternative approach to investigating lead-lag relationships between stock and stock index futures markets

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  • Chris Brooks
  • Ian Garrett
  • Melvin Hinich

Abstract

In the absence of market frictions, the cost-of-carry model of stock index futures pricing predicts that returns on the underlying stock index and the associated stock index futures contract will be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Evidence suggests, however, that this prediction is violated with clear evidence that the stock index futures market leads the stock market. It is argued that traditional tests, which assume that the underlying data generating process is constant, might be prone to overstate the lead-lag relationship. Using a new test for lead-lag relationships based on cross correlations and cross bicorrelations it is found that, contrary to results from using the traditional methodology, periods where the futures market leads the cash market are few and far between and when any lead-lag relationship is detected, it does not last long. Overall, the results are consistent with the prediction of the standard cost-of-carry model and market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Brooks & Ian Garrett & Melvin Hinich, 1999. "An alternative approach to investigating lead-lag relationships between stock and stock index futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 605-613.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:9:y:1999:i:6:p:605-613
    DOI: 10.1080/096031099332050
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jahangir Sultan & Mohammad Hasan, 2008. "The effectiveness of dynamic hedging: evidence from selected European stock index futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 469-488.
    2. Poutré, Cédric & Dionne, Georges & Yergeau, Gabriel, 2024. "The profitability of lead–lag arbitrage at high frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1002-1021.
    3. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Séverine Vandelanoite, 2002. "Relations intrajournalières entre l'indice CAC 40 et les options sur indice : Quel est le marché préféré des investisseurs informés ?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 66, pages 143-177.
    4. Junior, Peterson Owusu & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Padhan, Hemachandra & Alagidede, Imhotep, 2020. "Analysis of EEMD-based quantile-in-quantile approach on spot- futures prices of energy and precious metals in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Kumar, Satish, 2018. "Price discovery in emerging currency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 528-536.
    6. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Séverine Vandelanoite, 2000. "Intraday relations between CAC 40 cash index and CAC 40 index options [Relations intrajournalières entre l'indice CAC 40 et les options sur indice. Quel est le marché préféré des investisseurs info," Post-Print halshs-03727911, HAL.

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