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Exchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals: Impact of Oil Prices and the People’s Republic of China’s Growth

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Listed:
  • Chen, Hongyi

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Cao, Shuo

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

We identify five factors that can capture 95% of the variance across 39 United States (US) dollar exchange rates based on the principal component method. We use a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive model to analyze the determinants of movements in these exchange rates, and reveal that their impact on global oil prices and the People’s Republic of China’s growth has increased significantly since 2008. In particular, the variance of US dollar exchange rates has mainly been driven by these two shocks in recent years. The impact of monetary policy shocks on the currency pairs is comparatively small.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Hongyi & Cao, Shuo, 2019. "Exchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals: Impact of Oil Prices and the People’s Republic of China’s Growth," ADBI Working Papers 938, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0938
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rates; commodity prices; People’s Republic of China’s growth; monetary policy; factor model; TVP-FAVAR; Bayesian methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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