IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rff/dpaper/dp-23-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertain Remedies to Fight Uncertain Consequences: The Case of Solar Geoengineering

Author

Listed:
  • Traeger, Christian P.
  • Meier, Felix D.

Abstract

Solar geoengineering can cool our planet and counteract the warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Given current emission trajectories, solar geoengineering has the potential to save lives, reduce severe impacts on economic production, and save ecosystems and island states. Deterministic integrated assessment models tend to show major benefits from solar geoengineering, but are highly sensitive to the assumed and highly uncertain damages from solar geoengineering as well as the effectiveness of cooling the planet. We analyze how uncertainties and the anticipation of learning change the case for solar geoengineering in a world with an uncertain temperature response to carbon dioxide emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Traeger, Christian P. & Meier, Felix D., 2023. "Uncertain Remedies to Fight Uncertain Consequences: The Case of Solar Geoengineering," RFF Working Paper Series 23-37, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-23-37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rff.org/documents/4126/WP_23-37.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reyer Gerlagh & Matti Liski, 2018. "Carbon Prices for the Next Hundred Years," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(609), pages 728-757, March.
    2. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    3. Manoussi, Vassiliki & Xepapadeas, Anastasios & Emmerling, Johannes, 2018. "Climate engineering under deep uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 207-224.
    4. Hoel, Michael & Karp, Larry, 2001. "Taxes and quotas for a stock pollutant with multiplicative uncertainty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 91-114, October.
    5. Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C. & Sexton, Steven E., 2021. "The GDP-Temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2018. "Solar geoengineering, uncertainty, and the price of carbon," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-41.
    7. Karp, Larry & Zhang, Jiangfeng, 2006. "Regulation with anticipated learning about environmental damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 259-279, May.
    8. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Ivan Shaliastovich & Amir Yaron, 2014. "Volatility, the Macroeconomy, and Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2471-2511, December.
    9. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2016. "Climate tipping points and solar geoengineering," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 19-45.
    10. Joann Jasiak & Christian Gourieroux, 2006. "Autoregressive gamma processes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 129-152.
    11. Elnaz Roshan & Mohammad M. Khabbazan & Hermann Held, 2019. "Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities Under Probabilistic Climate Sensitivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 263-279, January.
    12. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    13. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June.
    14. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    15. Reyer Gerlagh & Matti Liski, 2018. "Carbon Prices for The Next Hundred Years," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(609), pages 728-757.
    16. Juan Moreno-Cruz & David Keith, 2013. "Climate policy under uncertainty: a case for solar geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 431-444, December.
    17. William Nordhaus, 2019. "Climate Change: The Ultimate Challenge for Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 1991-2014, June.
    18. David W. Keith & Douglas G. MacMartin, 2015. "A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 201-206, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Traeger, Christian, 2021. "ACE - Analytic Climate Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Jin, Wei & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhang, Lin, 2021. "Energy transition without dirty capital stranding," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Anthony Wiskich, 2024. "Social Costs of Methane and Carbon Dioxide in a Tipping Climate," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(5), pages 1275-1293, May.
    4. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Eberhardt, Markus, 2024. "Climate change and economic prosperity: Evidence from a flexible damage function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    6. Agliardi, Elettra & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Temperature targets, deep uncertainty and extreme events in the design of optimal climate policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Reyer Gerlagh & Veronica Lupi & Marzio Galeotti, 2023. "Fertility and climate change," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 208-252, January.
    8. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    9. Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher & Turley, Robert, 2018. "An intertemporal CAPM with stochastic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 207-233.
    10. Heyen, Daniel & Horton, Joshua & Moreno-Cruz, Juan, 2019. "Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering: Clash or cooperation?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 153-177.
    11. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    12. Joseph E. Aldy & Richard Zeckhauser, 2020. "Three prongs for prudent climate policy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(1), pages 3-29, July.
    13. Cantelmo, Alessandro & Melina, Giovanni & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2023. "Macroeconomic outcomes in disaster-prone countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    14. Christian Traeger, 2014. "Why uncertainty matters: discounting under intertemporal risk aversion and ambiguity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(3), pages 627-664, August.
    15. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2022. "Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117609, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Garth Heutel & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Katharine Ricke, 2016. "Climate Engineering Economics," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 99-118, October.
    17. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Jensen, Svenn & Traeger, Christian P., 2014. "Optimal climate change mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty: Stochastic integrated assessment and analytic findings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-125.
    19. Wei Jin & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2018. "Capital Accumulation, Green Paradox, and Stranded Assets: An Endogenous Growth Perspective," Working Papers 2018.33, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Edilio Valentini & Paolo Vitale, 2019. "Optimal Climate Policy for a Pessimistic Social Planner," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(2), pages 411-443, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-23-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Resources for the Future (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.