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Carbon Prices for the Next Hundred Years

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  • Reyer Gerlagh
  • Matti Liski

Abstract

This article examines the socially optimal pricing of carbon emissions over time when climate†change impacts are unknown, potentially high†consequence events. The carbon price tends to increase with income. But learning about impacts, or their absence, decouples the carbon price from income growth. The price should grow faster than the economy if the past warming is not substantial enough for learning the true long†run social cost. It grows slower than the economy as soon as the warming generates information about events that could have arrived but have not done so. A quantitative assessment shows that the price grows roughly at the rate of the economy for the next 100 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Reyer Gerlagh & Matti Liski, 2018. "Carbon Prices for the Next Hundred Years," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(609), pages 728-757, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:128:y:2018:i:609:p:728-757
    DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12436
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    Cited by:

    1. Frederick Ploeg & Aart Zeeuw, 2019. "Pricing Carbon and Adjusting Capital to Fend Off Climate Catastrophes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 29-50, January.
    2. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2022. "Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117610, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Traeger, Christian P. & Meier, Felix D., 2023. "Uncertain Remedies to Fight Uncertain Consequences: The Case of Solar Geoengineering," RFF Working Paper Series 23-37, Resources for the Future.
    5. Xu, Qi & Liu, Kui, 2024. "Hero or Devil: A comparison of different carbon tax policies for China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    6. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112808, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Borissov, Kirill & Brausmann, Alexandra & Bretschger, Lucas, 2019. "Carbon pricing, technology transition, and skill-based development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 252-269.
    8. Ma, Feng & Wu, Hanlin & Zeng, Qing, 2024. "Biodiversity and stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    9. Reyer Gerlagh & Veronica Lupi & Marzio Galeotti, 2023. "Fertility and climate change," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 208-252, January.
    10. Traeger, Christian, 2021. "ACE - Analytic Climate Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Reyer Gerlagh & Roweno J.R.K. Heijmans, 2018. "Regulating Stock Externalities," CESifo Working Paper Series 7383, CESifo.
    12. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    13. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112802, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Christian P. Traeger, 2023. "ACE—Analytic Climate Economy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 372-406, August.
    15. Sun, Ya-Fang & Su, Bin & Zhong, Sheng & He, Junyi & Yu, Shiwei, 2024. "Determinants of Aggregated Embodied Carbon Intensity in Global Bilateral Exports by Firm Heterogeneity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    16. Martin C. Hänsel & Michael D. Bauer & Moritz A. Drupp & Gernot Wagner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2022. "Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10113, CESifo.
    17. Sommer, Stephan & Mattauch, Linus & Pahle, Michael, 2022. "Supporting carbon taxes: The role of fairness," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    18. Richard Jaimes, 2021. "Does idiosyncratic risk matter for climate policy?," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-30, May.
    19. David Ardia & Keven Bluteau & Kris Boudt & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2020. "Climate change concerns and the performance of green versus brown stocks," Working Paper Research 395, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. Ahlvik, Lassi & Iho, Antti, 2018. "Optimal geoengineering experiments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 148-168.
    21. Kougias, Ioannis & Szabó, Sándor & Nikitas, Alexandros & Theodossiou, Nicolaos, 2019. "Sustainable energy modelling of non-interconnected Mediterranean islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 930-940.
    22. Willner, Maximilian, 2018. "Consulting the chrystal ballː Firm's foresight and a cap-and-trade scheme with endogenous supply adjustments," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 46, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    23. Anthony Wiskich, 2024. "Social Costs of Methane and Carbon Dioxide in a Tipping Climate," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(5), pages 1275-1293, May.
    24. Fabra, Natalia & Reguant, Mar, 2024. "The energy transition: A balancing act," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    25. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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