IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rff/dpaper/dp-01-56-.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When ENSO Reigns, It Pours: Climate Forecasts in Flood Planning

Author

Listed:
  • Wernstedt, Kris

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Hersh, Robert

Abstract

Recent scientific and technical advances have increased the potential use of longterm seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region exists, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; b) the definition of critical flood events; c) site-specific features of watersheds; and d) the characteristics of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both institutional and statistical, is needed to facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.

Suggested Citation

  • Wernstedt, Kris & Hersh, Robert, 2001. "When ENSO Reigns, It Pours: Climate Forecasts in Flood Planning," RFF Working Paper Series dp-01-56-, Resources for the Future.
  • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-01-56-
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-01-56.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James W. Mjelde & Troy N. Thompson & Clair J. Nixon, 1996. "Government Institutional Effects on the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 175-188.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wernstedt, Kris & Hersh, Robert, 2002. "Flood Planning and Climate Forecasts at the Local Level," Discussion Papers 10813, Resources for the Future.
    2. Robert Hersh & Kris Wernstedt, 2002. "Gauging the Vulnerability of Local Water Systems to Extreme Events," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 341-361.
    3. Wernstedt, Kris & Hersh, Robert, 2002. "Flood Planning and Climate Forecasts at the Local Level," RFF Working Paper Series dp-02-27, Resources for the Future.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Messina, C. D. & Hansen, J. W. & Hall, A. J., 1999. "Land allocation conditioned on El Nino-Southern Oscillation phases in the Pampas of Argentina," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 197-212, June.
    2. Graham R. Marshall & Kevin A. Parton & G.L. Hammer, 1996. "Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions And The Value Of Seasonal Forecasts To A Dryland Wheat Grower," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(3), pages 211-233, December.
    3. Rebecca Darbyshire & Jason Crean & Michael Cashen & Muhuddin Rajin Anwar & Kim M Broadfoot & Marja Simpson & David H Cobon & Christa Pudmenzky & Louis Kouadio & Shreevatsa Kodur, 2020. "Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1034-1058, October.
    4. Cabrera, Victor E. & Letson, David & Podesta, Guillermo, 2007. "The value of climate information when farm programs matter," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-3), pages 25-42, March.
    5. Jesse B. Tack & David Ubilava, 2015. "Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 245-257, March.
    6. Mjelde, J. W. & Hill, H. S. J., 1999. "The effect of the use of improved climate forecasts on variable costs, input usage, and production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 213-225, June.
    7. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    8. Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Osgood, Daniel E., 2006. "Index Insurance, Production Practices, and Probabilistic Climate Forecasts," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21463, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Wernstedt, Kris & Hersh, Robert, 2001. "When ENSO Reigns, It Pours: Climate Forecasts in Flood Planning," Discussion Papers 10603, Resources for the Future.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flooding; Climate; ENSO; Water Resources Planning; Water Policy; Water Management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-01-56-. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Resources for the Future (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.