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Identifying ambiguity shocks in business cycle models using survey data

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  • Jaroslav Borovicka

    (New York University)

Abstract

We develop a macroeconomic framework with agents facing time-varying concerns for model misspecification. These concerns lead agents to interpret the economy through the lens of a pessimistically biased `worst-case' model. We use survey data to identify exogenous fluctuations in the worst-case model. In an estimated New-Keynesian business cycle model with frictional labor markets, these ambiguity shocks explain a substantial portion of the variation in labor market quantities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaroslav Borovicka, 2016. "Identifying ambiguity shocks in business cycle models using survey data," 2016 Meeting Papers 1615, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:1615
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    2. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, 2020. "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 220-237, October.
    3. Sreyoshi Das & Camelia M Kuhnen & Stefan Nagel, 2020. "Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 395-432.
    4. Adam, Klaus & Matveev, Dmitry & Nagel, Stefan, 2021. "Do survey expectations of stock returns reflect risk adjustments?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 723-740.
    5. Marta Cota, 2023. "Extrapolative Income Expectations and Retirement Savings," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp751, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. Filip Rozsypal & Kathrin Schlafmann, 2023. "Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and Its Aggregate Implications," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 331-371, October.
    7. George-Marios Angeletos, 2018. "Frictional Coordination," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 563-603.
    8. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
    9. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric, 2017. "Robustness, Low Risk-Free Rates, and Consumption Volatility in General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 80046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Rupal Kamdar, 2019. "The Inattentive Consumer: Sentiment and Expectations," 2019 Meeting Papers 647, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2020. "Aggregate Risk or Aggregate Uncertainty? Evidence from UK Households," EIEF Working Papers Series 2006, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2020.
    12. Guangyu PEI, 2019. "Uncertainty, Pessimism and Economic Fluctuations," 2019 Meeting Papers 1494, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Ilut, Cosmin & Saijo, Hikaru, 2021. "Learning, confidence, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 354-376.
    14. Lars Peter Hansen, 2017. "Comment on "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Economic Expectations: Progress and Promise"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 479-489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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