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Do re-election probabilities influence public investment?

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  • Jon Fiva

    (Universitetet i Oslo)

  • Gisle James Natvik

    (Norges Bank)

Abstract

An insight from dynamic political economy is that elected officials may use state variables to affect the choices of their successors. We exploit the staggered timing of local and national elections in Norway to investigate how politicians’ re-election probabilities affect their investments in physical capital. Because popularity is endogenous to politics, we use an instrumental variable approach based on regional movements in ideological sentiment. We find that higher re-election probabilities stimulate investments, particularly in programs preferred more strongly by the incumbent parties. This aligns with theory where capital and current expenditures are considered complementary inputs to government production. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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  • Jon Fiva & Gisle James Natvik, 2010. "Do re-election probabilities influence public investment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:334
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    2. Alexandre B. Cunha & Emanuel Ornelas, 2014. "Political Competition and the Limits of Political Compromise," CEP Discussion Papers dp1263, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Yu‐Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Booms, Recessions And Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look At Investment Decisions Under Cyclical Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(3), pages 290-317, July.
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    6. Jon Fiva & Gisle Natvik, 2013. "Do re-election probabilities influence public investment?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 305-331, October.
    7. Marina Azzimonti, 2015. "The dynamics of public investment under persistent electoral advantage," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 653-678, July.
    8. Revelli, Federico, 2019. "The electoral migration cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 461-482.
    9. Gupta, Sanjeev & Liu, Estelle X. & Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 2016. "Now or later? The political economy of public investment in democracies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 101-114.
    10. Vicente Rios & Miriam Hortas-Rico & Pedro Pascual, 2022. "What shapes the flypaper effect? The role of the political environment in the budget process," Local Government Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 793-820, September.
    11. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    12. Jahen F. Rezki, 2022. "Political competition and economic performance: evidence from Indonesia," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 83-114, June.
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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