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Prediction Markets and Poll Releases: When Are Prices Most Informative?

Author

Listed:
  • Alasdair Brown

    (University of East Anglia)

  • James Reade

    (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

  • Leighton Vaughan Williams

    (Nottingham Business School)

Abstract

Prediction markets are a popular platform for eliciting incentivised crowd predictions. In this paper, we examine variation in the information contained in prediction market prices by studying Intrade prices on U.S. elections around the release of opinion polls. We find that poll releases stimulate an immediate uptick in trading activity. However, much of this activity involves relatively inexperienced traders and, as a result, price efficiency declines in the immediate aftermath of a poll release. It is not until more experienced traders enter the market in the following ours that price efficiency recovers. More generally, this suggests that information releases do not necessarily improve prediction market forecasts, but may instead attract noise traders who temporarily reduce price efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Alasdair Brown & James Reade & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2018. "Prediction Markets and Poll Releases: When Are Prices Most Informative?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2018-02, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2018-02
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    File URL: http://www.reading.ac.uk/web/FILES/economics/emdp2018134.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    2. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 293, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    3. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    prediction markets; opinion polls; price efficiency; information efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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