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Recreating the South Sea Bubble: Lessons from an Experiment in Financial History

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  • Giovanni Giusti
  • Charles Noussair
  • Hans-Joachim Voth

Abstract

Major bubble episodes are rare events. In this paper, we examine what factors might cause some asset price bubbles to become very large. We recreate, in a laboratory setting, some of the specific institutional features investors in the South Sea Company faced in 1720. Several factors have been proposed as potentially contributing to one of the greatest periods of asset overvaluation in history: an intricate debt?for?equity swap, deferred payment for these shares, and the possibility of default on the deferred payments. We consider which aspect might have had the most impact in creating the South Sea bubble. The results of the experiment suggest that the company’s attempt to exchange its shares for government debt was the single biggest contributor to the stock price explosion, because of the manner in which the swap affected fundamental value. Issuing new shares with only partial payments required, in conjunction with the debtequity swap, also had a significant effect on the size of the bubble. Limited contract enforcement, on the other hand, does not appear to have contributed significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Giusti & Charles Noussair & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2014. "Recreating the South Sea Bubble: Lessons from an Experiment in Financial History," ECON - Working Papers 146, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:146
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Turner, John D., 2017. "The development of English company law before 1900," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2017-01, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    2. Owen Powell & Natalia Shestakova, 2017. "Experimental asset markets: behavior and bubbles," Chapters, in: Morris Altman (ed.), Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making, chapter 21, pages 375-391, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial bubbles; experiments; South Sea bubble; risk-shifting; government debt; equity issuance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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