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Crude Oil and Agricultural Futures: An Analysis of Correlation Dynamics

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  • Annastiina Silvennoinen

    (QUT)

  • Susan Thorp

    (Sydney Uni)

Abstract

Correlations between oil and agricultural commodities have varied over previous decades, impacted by renewable fuels policy and turbulent economic conditions. We estimate smooth transition conditional correlation models for 12 agricultural commodities and WTI crude oil. While a structural change in correlations occurred concurrently with the introduction of biofuel policy, oil and food price levels are also key influences. High correlation between biofuel feedstocks and oil is more likely to occur when food and oil price levels are high. Correlation with oil returns is strong for biofuel feedstocks, unlike with other agricultural futures, suggesting limited contagion from energy to food markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Annastiina Silvennoinen & Susan Thorp, 2015. "Crude Oil and Agricultural Futures: An Analysis of Correlation Dynamics," NCER Working Paper Series 109, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2015_07
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    4. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Fijorek, Kamil & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "What drives food price volatility? Evidence based on a generalized VAR approach applied to the food, financial and energy markets," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-32.
    5. Haiying Wang & Ying Yuan & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "The dynamics of cross‐boundary fire—Financial contagion between the oil and stock markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1655-1673, October.
    6. Leong, Soon Heng, 2021. "Global crude oil and the Chinese oil-intensive sectors: A comprehensive causality study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Liu, Pan & Vedenov, Dmitry & Power, Gabriel J., 2020. "Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
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    12. Jiawen Luo & Langnan Chen, 2019. "Multivariate realized volatility forecasts of agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(12), pages 1565-1586, December.
    13. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Oil and gold as a hedge and safe-haven for metals and agricultural commodities with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    14. Tang, Yusui & Ma, Feng, 2023. "The volatility of natural resources implications for sustainable development: Crude oil volatility prediction based on the multivariate structural regime switching," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2019. "The ethanol mandate and crude oil and biofuel agricultural commodity price dynamics," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Iuga, Iulia Cristina & Mudakkar, Syeda Rabab & Dragolea, Larisa Loredana, 2024. "Agricultural commodities market reaction to COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2019. "Correlation dynamics of crude oil with agricultural commodities: A comparison between energy and food crops," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 453-466.
    19. Dahl, Roy Endré & Oglend, Atle & Yahya, Muhammad, 2020. "Dynamics of volatility spillover in commodity markets: Linking crude oil to agriculture," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    20. Robert J. Powell & Duc H. Vo & Thach N. Pham, 2018. "Economic cycles and downside commodities risk," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 258-263, February.
    21. Yu, Hongchu & Fang, Zhixiang & Lu, Feng & Murray, Alan T. & Zhang, Hengcai & Peng, Peng & Mei, Qiang & Chen, Jinhai, 2019. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 390-403.
    22. Yahya, Muhammad & Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Wadström, Christoffer & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "Dependence structure between the international crude oil market and the European markets of biodiesel and rapeseed oil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 594-605.
    23. Clark Lundberg & Tristan Skolrud & Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath, 2021. "Oil Price Pass through to Agricultural Commodities†," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 721-742, March.
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    Keywords

    Smooth transition conditional correlation; Structural breaks; Return comovement;
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