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Brazil: taming inflation expectations

In: Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies

Author

Listed:
  • Afonso S Bevilaqua

    (Banco Central do Brasil)

  • Mário Mesquita

    (Banco Central do Brasil)

  • André Minella

    (Banco Central do Brasil)

Abstract

This paper analyzes monetary policy implementation and convergence of inflation and inflation expectations to the targets in Brazil after the crisis in 2002. It covers the initial disinflation and subsequent economic recovery, followed by the inflation rebound and corresponding policy response, and finally the consolidation of disinflation in 2005-06. Monetary policy implementation and the overall improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals have contributed substantially to create a more stable and predictable environment, evidenced by signs of reduction in inflation uncertainty. Furthermore, econometric exercises indicate the critical role played by the targets as attractors for inflation expectations.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso S Bevilaqua & Mário Mesquita & André Minella, 2008. "Brazil: taming inflation expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 139-158, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:35-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
    2. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
    4. Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    6. Afonso Bevilaqua & Rodrigo Azevedo, 2005. "Provision of FX hedge by the public sector: the Brazilian experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 119-26, Bank for International Settlements.
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