IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qmw/qmwecw/970.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes in a World of Ideas

Author

Listed:
  • James Cloyne

    (University of California Davis, NBER and CEPR)

  • Joseba Martinez

    (London Business School and CEPR)

  • Haroon Mumtaz

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Paolo Surico

    (London Business School and CEPR)

Abstract

Using a narrative identification of US tax changes over the post-WWII period, we show that corporate income tax cuts foster R&D spending and innovation, leading to a persistent increase in aggregate productivity and output. In contrast, changes in the average personal income tax rate have mostly short-term e ects. An estimated endogenous productivity model highlights therole of "applied research" - over and above formal R&D - as a main force behind these results, and suggests a social rate of return to investment in innovation between 20% and 75%.

Suggested Citation

  • James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2023. "The Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes in a World of Ideas," Working Papers 970, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:970
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/sef/media/econ/research/workingpapers/2023/wp970.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Auerbach, Alan J, 1989. "Tax Reform and Adjustment Costs: The Impact on Investment and Market Value," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 939-962, November.
    2. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    3. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2013. "Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of “Keynesian” Policies in 1930s' Britain," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1077-1104, December.
    4. Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Working Papers 2021-55, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    5. Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024. "Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    6. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    7. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pintér, Gábor, 2017. "Forecasting with VAR models: Fat tails and stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1124-1143.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2024. "Taxes, Innovation and Productivity," Working Papers 979, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens, 2022. "Dynamic Identification Using System Projections on Instrumental Variables," Working Papers 2204, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 03 Jul 2024.
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    5. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2024. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(6), pages 1342-1372, December.
    6. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "Bayesian local projections," Working Papers hal-03373574, HAL.
    7. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    8. Elias Hasler, 2025. "Assessing the Global Impact of EU Carbon Pricing: Economic and Climate Spillovers," Working Papers 2025-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    9. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    10. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Beltrán, Paula & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2023. "The macro-financial effects of international bank lending on emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2024. "Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2024. "When are tax multipliers large?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    14. Mehdi El Herradi & Jakob Haan & Aurélien Leroy, 2023. "Inflation and the Income Share of the Rich: Evidence for 14 OECD Countries," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(1), pages 170-194, March.
    15. Priya, Pragati & Sharma, Chandan, 2024. "On transmission channels of energy prices and monetary policy shocks to household consumption: Evidence from India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    16. Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
    17. Benatti, Nicola & Groiss, Martin & Kelly, Petra & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Environmental regulation and productivity growth in the euro area: Testing the porter hypothesis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Miguel Cabello, 2022. "Robust Estimation of the non-Gaussian Dimension in Structural Linear Models," Papers 2212.07263, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    19. Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2022. "Comparison of local projection estimators for proxy vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    20. François-Éric Racicota & David Tessierc, 2023. "On the relationship between Jorda?s IRF local projection and Dufour et al.?s robust (p,h)-autoregression multihorizon causality: a note," Working Papers 2023-001, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate taxes; narrative identification; TFP; R&D; technological adoption.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicholas Owen The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Nicholas Owen to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deqmwuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.