IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qmw/qmwecw/579.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Price Limits on Futures Markets That Cool? Evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo Fernandes

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Marco Aurélio dos Santos Rocha

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of price limits on the Brazilian futures markets using high frequency data. The aim is to identify whether there is a cool-off or a magnet effect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data set that includes all contracts on the São Paulo stock index futures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange from January 1997 to December 1999. The results indicate that the conditional mean features a floor cool-off effect, whereas the conditional variance significantly increases as the price approaches the upper limit. We then build a trading strategy that accounts for the cool-off effect in the conditional mean so as to demonstrate that the latter has not only statistical, but also economic significance. The in-sample Sharpe ratio indeed is way superior to the buy-and-hold benchmarks we consider, whereas out-of-sample results evince similar performances.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Fernandes & Marco Aurélio dos Santos Rocha, 2006. "Are Price Limits on Futures Markets That Cool? Evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange," Working Papers 579, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:579
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/sef/media/econ/research/workingpapers/2006/items/wp579.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brennan, Michael J., 1986. "A theory of price limits in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-233, June.
    2. Martin Martens, 2002. "Measuring and forecasting S&P 500 index‐futures volatility using high‐frequency data," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 497-518, June.
    3. Cho, David D. & Russell, Jeffrey & Tiao, George C. & Tsay, Ruey, 2003. "The magnet effect of price limits: evidence from high-frequency data on Taiwan Stock Exchange," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 133-168, February.
    4. Henk Berkman & Onno W. Steenbeek, 1998. "The influence of daily price limits on trading in Nikkei futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 265-279, May.
    5. Iannizzotto, Matteo & Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "The Target Zone Model, Non-linearity and Mean Reversion: Is the Honeymoon Really Over?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 96-110, March.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
    7. Timo Teräsvirta & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Gianluigi Rech, 2006. "Building neural network models for time series: a statistical approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 49-75.
    8. Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990. "An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211.
    9. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 2002. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 369-400, February.
    10. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1991. "On the application of robust, regression- based diagnostics to models of conditional means and conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 5-46, January.
    11. Chowdhry, Bhagwan & Nanda, Vikram, 1998. "Leverage and Market Stability: The Role of Margin Rules and Price Limits," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 179-210, April.
    12. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
    13. Kim, Kenneth & Rhee, S Ghon, 1997. "Price Limit Performance: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 885-899, June.
    14. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    15. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1994. "Circuit Breakers and Market Volatility: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 237-254, March.
    16. GRAMMIG , Joachim & WELLNER, Marc, 2002. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1534, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    17. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    18. Ma, C.K. & Rao, R.P. & Sears, R.S., 1989. "Volatility, Price Resolution, And The Effectiveness Of Price Limits," Papers t7, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    19. Marcelle Arak & Richard Cook, 1997. "Do Daily Price Limits Act as Magnets? The Case of Treasury Bond Futures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(1), pages 5-20, August.
    20. Dhrymes, Phoebus J., 1986. "Limited dependent variables," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1567-1631, Elsevier.
    21. Kodres, Laura E & O'Brien, Daniel P, 1994. "The Existence of Pareto-Superior Price Limits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 919-932, September.
    22. Lehmann, B.N., 1989. "Commentary: Volatility, Price Resolution, And The Effectiveness Of Price Limits," Papers t9, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wong, Woon K. & Chang, Matthew C. & Tu, Anthony H., 2009. "Are magnet effects caused by uninformed traders? Evidence from Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 28-40, January.
    2. Wong, Woon K. & Liu, Bo & Zeng, Yong, 2009. "Can price limits help when the price is falling? Evidence from transactions data on the Shanghai Stock Exchange," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-102, March.
    3. Levy, Tamir & Qadan, Mahmod & Yagil, Joseph, 2013. "Predicting the limit-hit frequency in futures contracts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 141-148.
    4. Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Azhar Mohamad, 2019. "Circuit breakers as market stability levers: A survey of research, praxis, and challenges," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 1130-1169, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcelo Fernandes & Marco Aurélio Dos Santos Rocha, 0. "Are price limits on futures markets that cool? Evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(2), pages 219-242.
    2. Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Azhar Mohamad, 2019. "Circuit breakers as market stability levers: A survey of research, praxis, and challenges," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 1130-1169, July.
    3. Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad & Mohamad, Azhar, 2020. "A survey on the magnet effect of circuit breakers in financial markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 138-151.
    4. Cheng Xiang & Jing Lu, 2023. "Magnet effects of circuit breakers in electronic order‐driven markets: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1450-1469, April.
    5. Levy, Tamir & Yagil, Joseph, 2005. "Observed versus theoretical prices under price limit regimes," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 208-237.
    6. James Brugler & Oliver Linton, 2014. "Circuit Breakers on the London Stock Exchange: Do they improve subsequent market quality?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1453, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. James Brugler & Oliver Linton, 2014. "Single stock circuit breakers on the London Stock Exchange: do they improve subsequent market quality?," CeMMAP working papers CWP07/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Xiong Xiong & Ding Nan & Yang Yang & Zhang Yongjie, 2015. "Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-12, November.
    9. Halim Dabbou & Ahmed Silem, 2014. "Price limit and financial contagion: protection or illusion? The tunisian stock exchange case," Post-Print hal-00925424, HAL.
    10. Chou, Pin-Huang & Lin, Mei-Chen & Yu, Min-Teh, 2005. "Risk aversion and price limits in futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 173-184, September.
    11. Yu-Lei Wan & Wen-Jie Xie & Gao-Feng Gu & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei Chen & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2015. "Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, April.
    12. Levy, Tamir & Qadan, Mahmod & Yagil, Joseph, 2013. "Predicting the limit-hit frequency in futures contracts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 141-148.
    13. Gao-Feng Gu & Xiong Xiong & Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Zhang & Yongjie Zhang & Wei Chen & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2021. "An empirical behavioral order-driven model with price limit rules," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Deb, Saikat Sovan & Kalev, Petko S. & Marisetty, Vijaya B., 2010. "Are price limits really bad for equity markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2462-2471, October.
    15. Reiffen, David & Buyuksahin, Bahattin, 2010. "The puzzle of privately-imposed price limits: are the limits imposed by financial exchanges effective?," MPRA Paper 35927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Henke, Harald & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2005. "Price limits on a call auction market: Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 439-453.
    17. Halim DABBOU & Ahmed SILEM, 2014. "Price Limit and Financial Contagion: Protection or Illusion? The Tunisian Stock Exchange Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 54-70.
    18. Wong, Woon K. & Chang, Matthew C. & Tu, Anthony H., 2009. "Are magnet effects caused by uninformed traders? Evidence from Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 28-40, January.
    19. Wong, Woon K. & Liu, Bo & Zeng, Yong, 2009. "Can price limits help when the price is falling? Evidence from transactions data on the Shanghai Stock Exchange," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-102, March.
    20. Chan, Soon Huat & Kim, Kenneth A. & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2005. "Price limit performance: evidence from transactions data and the limit order book," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 269-290, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cool-off effect; Futures markets; Magnet effect; Price limits; Transactions data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:579. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicholas Owen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deqmwuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.