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Are Price Limits on Futures Markets That Cool? Evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo Fernandes

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Marco Aurélio dos Santos Rocha

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of price limits on the Brazilian futures markets using high frequency data. The aim is to identify whether there is a cool-off or a magnet effect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data set that includes all contracts on the São Paulo stock index futures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange from January 1997 to December 1999. The results indicate that the conditional mean features a floor cool-off effect, whereas the conditional variance significantly increases as the price approaches the upper limit. We then build a trading strategy that accounts for the cool-off effect in the conditional mean so as to demonstrate that the latter has not only statistical, but also economic significance. The in-sample Sharpe ratio indeed is way superior to the buy-and-hold benchmarks we consider, whereas out-of-sample results evince similar performances.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Fernandes & Marco Aurélio dos Santos Rocha, 2006. "Are Price Limits on Futures Markets That Cool? Evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange," Working Papers 579, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:579
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xiaotao & Zhao, Yuepeng & Wang, Ziqiao, 2024. "Do loosened trading rules restore the stock index futures price discovery ability in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 389-397.
    2. Wong, Woon K. & Chang, Matthew C. & Tu, Anthony H., 2009. "Are magnet effects caused by uninformed traders? Evidence from Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 28-40, January.
    3. Wong, Woon K. & Liu, Bo & Zeng, Yong, 2009. "Can price limits help when the price is falling? Evidence from transactions data on the Shanghai Stock Exchange," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-102, March.
    4. Levy, Tamir & Qadan, Mahmod & Yagil, Joseph, 2013. "Predicting the limit-hit frequency in futures contracts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 141-148.
    5. Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Azhar Mohamad, 2019. "Circuit breakers as market stability levers: A survey of research, praxis, and challenges," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 1130-1169, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cool-off effect; Futures markets; Magnet effect; Price limits; Transactions data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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