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Are price limits on futures markets that cool?: evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange

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  • Fernandes, Marcelo
  • Rocha, Marco Aurélio dos Santos

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of price limits on the Brazilian futures markets using high frequency data. The aim is to identify whether there is a cool-off or a magnet effect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data set that includes all contracts on the S˜ao Paulo stock index futures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange from January 1997 to December 1999. The results indicate that the conditional mean features a floor cool-off effect, whereas the conditional variance significantly increases as the price approaches the upper limit. We then build a trading strategy that accounts for the cool-off effect in the conditional mean so as to demonstrate that the latter has not only statistical, but also economic significance. The in-sample Sharpe ratio indeed is way superior to the buy-and-hold benchmarks we consider, whereas out-of-sample results evince similar performances.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandes, Marcelo & Rocha, Marco Aurélio dos Santos, 2006. "Are price limits on futures markets that cool?: evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 630, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:630
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    1. Wong, Woon K. & Chang, Matthew C. & Tu, Anthony H., 2009. "Are magnet effects caused by uninformed traders? Evidence from Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 28-40, January.
    2. Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Azhar Mohamad, 2019. "Circuit breakers as market stability levers: A survey of research, praxis, and challenges," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 1130-1169, July.
    3. Wong, Woon K. & Liu, Bo & Zeng, Yong, 2009. "Can price limits help when the price is falling? Evidence from transactions data on the Shanghai Stock Exchange," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-102, March.
    4. Levy, Tamir & Qadan, Mahmod & Yagil, Joseph, 2013. "Predicting the limit-hit frequency in futures contracts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 141-148.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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