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Empirical Evidence on the Behavior and Stabilizing Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the US

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  • Manuel Coutinho Pereira

Abstract

In this paper, standard SVAR tools and counterfactual simulation techniques are applied to study the behavior and countercyclical role of monetary and fiscal policies in the US. In order to set up the model properly, different issues raised by joint identification of monetary and fiscal policy shocks are addressed, in particular, the contemporaneous response of taxes to the federal funds rate. I conclude that the federal funds rate and taxes net of transfers have moved mostly for endogenous reasons and, in the latter case, this reflects automatic rather than discretionary policy. In contrast, government expenditure has been basically driven by exogenous forces. Further, I reach evidence that (automatic) fiscal policy has been the most important stabilizing force in the course of postwar recessions, surpassing the role of monetary policy, while both policies have contributed similarly to narrowing the output gap at early stages of the recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2008. "Empirical Evidence on the Behavior and Stabilizing Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the US," Working Papers w200813, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200813
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    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp200813.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eddie Gerba & Klemens Hauzenberger, 2013. "Estimating US Fiscal and Monetary Interactions in a Time Varying VAR," Studies in Economics 1303, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. Lara Wemans & Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2013. "Output effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a structural VAR approach," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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