IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/prg/jnlwps/v4y2022id4.006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Application of the XGBoost algorithm and Bayesian optimization for the Bitcoin price prediction during the COVID-19 period

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Drahokoupil

Abstract

Aim of this paper is to use Machine Learning algorithm called XGBoost developed by Tianqi Chen and Carlos Guestrin in 2016 to predict future development of the Bitcoin (BTC) price and build an algorithmic trading strategy based on the predictions from the model. For the final algorithmic strategy, six XGBoost models are estimated in total, estimating following n-th day BTC Close predictions: 1,2,5,10,20,30. Bayesian optimization techniques are used twice during the development of the trading strategy. First, when appropriate hyperparameters of the XGBoost model are selected. Second, for the optimization of each model prediction weight, in order to obtain the most profitable trading strategy. The paper shows, that even though the XGBoost model has several limitations, it can fairly accurately predict future development of the BTC price, even for further predictions. The paper aims specifically for the potential of algorithmic trading during the COVID-19 period, where BTC cryptocurrency suffered extremely volatile period, reaching its new all-time highest prices as well as 50% losses during few consecutive months. The applied trading strategy shows promising results, as it beats the B&H strategy both from the perspective of total profit, Sharpe ratio or Sortino ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Drahokoupil, 2022. "Application of the XGBoost algorithm and Bayesian optimization for the Bitcoin price prediction during the COVID-19 period," FFA Working Papers 4.006, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 09 May 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlwps:v:4:y:2022:id:4.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wp.ffu.vse.cz/artkey/wps-202201-0006_application-of-the-xgboost-algorithm-and-bayesian-optimization-for-the-bitcoin-price-prediction-during-the-covi.php
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://wp.ffu.vse.cz/pdfs/wps/2022/01/06.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rohitash Chandra & Yixuan He, 2021. "Bayesian neural networks for stock price forecasting before and during COVID-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-32, July.
    2. Ekaterina Zolotareva, 2021. "Aiding Long-Term Investment Decisions with XGBoost Machine Learning Model," Papers 2104.09341, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karol Chojnacki & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2023. "This study compares well-known tools of technical analysis (Moving Average Crossover MAC) with Machine Learning based strategies (LSTM and XGBoost) and Ensembled Machine Learning Strategies (LSTM ense," Working Papers 2023-15, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Wei Liu & Yoshihisa Suzuki & Shuyi Du, 2024. "Forecasting the Stock Price of Listed Innovative SMEs Using Machine Learning Methods Based on Bayesian optimization: Evidence from China," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(5), pages 2035-2068, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goutte, Stéphane & Le, Hoang-Viet & Liu, Fei & von Mettenheim, Hans-Jörg, 2023. "Deep learning and technical analysis in cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Jingyang Wu & Xinyi Zhang & Fangyixuan Huang & Haochen Zhou & Rohtiash Chandra, 2024. "Review of deep learning models for crypto price prediction: implementation and evaluation," Papers 2405.11431, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    3. Yinheng Li & Shaofei Wang & Han Ding & Hang Chen, 2023. "Large Language Models in Finance: A Survey," Papers 2311.10723, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    4. Martin Magris & Mostafa Shabani & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2022. "Bayesian Bilinear Neural Network for Predicting the Mid-price Dynamics in Limit-Order Book Markets," Papers 2203.03613, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    5. Mingshu Li & Bhaskarjit Sarmah & Dhruv Desai & Joshua Rosaler & Snigdha Bhagat & Philip Sommer & Dhagash Mehta, 2024. "Quantile Regression using Random Forest Proximities," Papers 2408.02355, arXiv.org.
    6. Tijana Matejić & Snežana Knežević & Vesna Bogojević Arsić & Tijana Obradović & Stefan Milojević & Miljan Adamović & Aleksandra Mitrović & Marko Milašinović & Dragoljub Simonović & Goran Milošević & Ma, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Hotel Industry Bankruptcy Risk through Novel Forecasting Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-44, April.
    7. Faizal Hafiz & Jan Broekaert & Davide La Torre & Akshya Swain, 2021. "A Multi-criteria Approach to Evolve Sparse Neural Architectures for Stock Market Forecasting," Papers 2111.08060, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    XGBoost; Bayesian Optimization; Bitcoin; Algorithmic trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlwps:v:4:y:2022:id:4.006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.