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Predicting Stock Market Movements with a Time-Varying Consumption-Aggregate Wealth Ratio

Author

Listed:
  • Tsangyao Chang

    (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Anandamayee Majumdar

    (Center for Advanced Statistics and Econometrics, Soochow University, Suzhou, China)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

We develop a time-varying measure of cay (cayTVP) using time-varying cointegration, and then compare the predictive ability of cayTVP with cay and a Markov-switching cay (cayMS) for excess stock returns and volatility in the US over the period 1952:Q2-2015:Q3, using a k-th order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test. We find that time-varying cointegration exists between consumption, asset wealth and labor income. In addition, while there is no evidence of predictability for excess returns volatility from cay, cayMS, or cayTVP, they tend to act as strong predictors of stock returns, with cayTVP being important during the bearish phases of the equity market.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsangyao Chang & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2017. "Predicting Stock Market Movements with a Time-Varying Consumption-Aggregate Wealth Ratio," Working Papers 201756, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201756
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    Cited by:

    1. Marina Kolosnitsyna & Anna Philippova, 2017. "Family Benefits and Poverty: The Case of Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 03/PSP/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Linking U.S. State-level housing market returns, and the consumption-(Dis)Aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 779-810.
    3. Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Variants of consumption‐wealth ratios and predictability of U.S. government bond risk premia," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 661-674, June.
    4. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Eric Olson, 2020. "Effect of uncertainty on U.S. stock returns and volatility: evidence from over eighty years of high-frequency data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(16), pages 1305-1311, September.
    5. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Variants of Consumption-Wealth Ratios and Predictability of U.S. Government Bond Risk Premia: Old is still Gold," Working Papers 201912, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Hui Hong & Zhicun Bian & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2021. "COVID-19 and instability of stock market performance: evidence from the U.S," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption-aggregate wealth ratio; time-varying cointegration; stock returns; volatility; nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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