IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/201533.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Debunking the Myth that a Legal Trade will Solve the Rhino Horn Crisis: A System Dynamics Model for Market Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas J. Crookes

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • James N. Blignaut

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

There is considerable debate in the literature over whether or not to legalise the trade in rhino horns. Here a system dynamics model is developed that considers five components: rhino abundance, rhino demand, a price model, an income model and a supply model. The results indicate that income elasticities are much greater than previously observed, while demand is relatively insensitive to price. At the same time, legalising the trade without income modification policies did not prevent extinction. The theory of s-curve growth may provide some indications of future growth patterns of Asian economies. Results suggest that, even though the demand curve for rhino horn may be downward sloping as conventional theory predicts, non-conventional demand management strategies may be more effective than price orientated demand curve strategies such as trade legalisation in curbing supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas J. Crookes & James N. Blignaut, 2015. "Debunking the Myth that a Legal Trade will Solve the Rhino Horn Crisis: A System Dynamics Model for Market Demand," Working Papers 201533, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201533
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.up.ac.za/media/shared/61/WP/wp_2015_33.zp56983.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lim Chong Yah, 2005. "Economic Theory And The East Asian Region," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 50(spec0), pages 495-512.
    2. Charles F. Mason & Erwin H. Bulte & Richard D. Horan, 2012. "Banking on extinction: endangered species and speculation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(1), pages 180-192, Spring.
    3. Semeniuk, Christina A.D. & Haider, Wolfgang & Cooper, Andrew & Rothley, Kristina D., 2010. "A linked model of animal ecology and human behavior for the management of wildlife tourism," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(22), pages 2699-2713.
    4. LIM Chong Yah, 2012. "The Trinity Growth Theory: A Theory of Wealth and Poverty," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1203, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    5. Weller, Florian & Cecchini, Lee-Anne & Shannon, Lynne & Sherley, Richard B. & Crawford, Robert J.M. & Altwegg, Res & Scott, Leanne & Stewart, Theodor & Jarre, Astrid, 2014. "A system dynamics approach to modelling multiple drivers of the African penguin population on Robben Island, South Africa," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 277(C), pages 38-56.
    6. Allen, Douglas W, 2002. "The Rhino's Horn: Incomplete Property Rights and the Optimal Value of an Asset," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(2), pages 339-358, June.
    7. Beall, Allyson & Zeoli, Len, 2008. "Participatory modeling of endangered wildlife systems: Simulating the sage-grouse and land use in Central Washington," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 24-33, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alan Collins & Caroline Cox & Juniours Marire, 2020. "On the judicial annulment of the ‘domestic’ trade moratorium in South African rhinoceros horn: a law and economics perspective," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 361-372, June.
    2. Lopes, Adrian A., 2019. "Transnational links in rhino poaching and the black-market price of rhino horns," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(1), January.
    3. Alan Collins & Caroline Cox & Juniours Marire, 0. "On the judicial annulment of the ‘domestic’ trade moratorium in South African rhinoceros horn: a law and economics perspective," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-12.
    4. Harvey, Ross & Alden, Chris & Wu, Yu-Shan, 2017. "Speculating a Fire Sale: Options for Chinese Authorities in Implementing a Domestic Ivory Trade Ban," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 22-31.
    5. Rubino, Elena C. & Pienaar, Elizabeth F. & Soto, José R., 2018. "Structuring Legal Trade in Rhino Horn to Incentivize the Participation of South African Private Landowners," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 306-316.
    6. Timothy C Haas & Sam M Ferreira, 2016. "Combating Rhino Horn Trafficking: The Need to Disrupt Criminal Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-26, November.
    7. Siqing Shan & Xijie Ju & Yigang Wei & Xin Wen, 2022. "Concerned or Apathetic? Using Social Media Platform (Twitter) to Gauge the Public Awareness about Wildlife Conservation: A Case Study of the Illegal Rhino Trade," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-21, June.
    8. Dang Vu, Hoai Nam & Nielsen, Martin Reinhardt & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl, 2022. "Conserving rhinos by legal trade: Insights from a choice experiment with rhino horn consumers," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yun Eui Choi & Kihwan Song & Min Kim & Junga Lee, 2017. "Transformation Planning for Resilient Wildlife Habitats in Ecotourism Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Matinzadeh, Mohammad Mehdi & Abedi Koupai, Jahangir & Sadeghi-Lari, Adnan & Nozari, Hamed & Shayannejad, Mohammad, 2017. "Development of an innovative integrated model for the simulation of nitrogen dynamics in farmlands with drainage systems using the system dynamics approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 347(C), pages 11-28.
    3. Kenter, Jasper O., 2016. "Integrating deliberative monetary valuation, systems modelling and participatory mapping to assess shared values of ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 21(PB), pages 291-307.
    4. J. Amegashie, 2011. "Incomplete property rights and overinvestment," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 37(1), pages 81-95, June.
    5. Xiaopeng Guo & Xiaodan Guo & Jiahai Yuan, 2014. "Impact Analysis of Air Pollutant Emission Policies on Thermal Coal Supply Chain Enterprises in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Moyle, Brendan, 2014. "The raw and the carved: Shipping costs and ivory smuggling," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 259-265.
    7. Tisdell, Clement A., 2005. "Economic Globalisation: The Process and its Potential, Social, Economic and Environmental Impacts," Economic Theory, Applications and Issues Working Papers 90539, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    8. Bertacchini, Enrico & Grazzini, Jakob & Vallino, Elena, 2013. "Emergence and Evolution of Property Rights: an Agent Based Perspective," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201340, University of Turin.
    9. Harvey, Ross & Alden, Chris & Wu, Yu-Shan, 2017. "Speculating a Fire Sale: Options for Chinese Authorities in Implementing a Domestic Ivory Trade Ban," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 22-31.
    10. Lee J. Alston & Edwyna Harris & Bernardo Mueller, 2009. "De Facto and De Jure Property Rights: Land Settlement and Land Conflict on the Australian, Brazilian and U.S. Frontiers," NBER Working Papers 15264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Weller, Florian & Sherley, Richard B. & Waller, Lauren J. & Ludynia, Katrin & Geldenhuys, Deon & Shannon, Lynne J. & Jarre, Astrid, 2016. "System dynamics modelling of the Endangered African penguin populations on Dyer and Robben islands, South Africa," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 327(C), pages 44-56.
    12. Lopes, Adrian A., 2014. "Civil unrest and the poaching of rhinos in the Kaziranga National Park, India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 20-28.
    13. Marco Magnani, 2013. "Why do dictators like white elephants? An application of the all-pay auction," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2260-2269.
    14. Amegashie, J. Atsu, 2012. "Productive versus destructive efforts in contests," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 461-468.
    15. Semeniuk, Christina A.D. & Haider, Wolfgang & Cooper, Andrew & Rothley, Kristina D., 2010. "A linked model of animal ecology and human behavior for the management of wildlife tourism," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(22), pages 2699-2713.
    16. Timothy C Haas & Sam M Ferreira, 2016. "Combating Rhino Horn Trafficking: The Need to Disrupt Criminal Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-26, November.
    17. Watermeyer, K.E. & Jarre, A. & Shannon, L.J. & Mulumba, P. & Botha, J., 2018. "A frame-based modelling approach to understanding changes in the distribution and abundance of sardine and anchovy in the southern Benguela," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 371(C), pages 1-17.
    18. Conrad, Jon M. & Lopes, Adrian A., 2017. "Poaching and the dynamics of a protected species," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 55-67.
    19. Maryam Yazdanparast & Mehdi Ghorbani & Ali Salajegheh & Reza Kerachian, 2023. "Development of a Water Security Conceptual Model by Combining Human-Environmental System (HES) and System Dynamic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(4), pages 1695-1709, March.
    20. Paitoon Wiboonchutikula & Bundit Chaivichayachat & Jaruwan Chontanawat, 2014. "Sources Of Energy Intensity Change Of Thailand'S Steel Industry In The Decade Of Global Turbulent Time," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 59(03), pages 1-34.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.