IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/200514.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Econometric Model of the Rand-US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Moses M. Sichei

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Tewodros G. Gebreselasie

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Olusegun A. Akanbi

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

Modeling the nominal exchange rate has been one of the most difficult exercises in economics. This paper attempts to estimate the nominal rand-USD exchange rate under the Dornbusch(1980) and Frankel (1979) overshooting model using the Johansen cointegration technique. The overshooting model fits the data well and that commodity prices are sticky in South Africa. Thus any monetary policy strategy to strengthen or weaken the rand by means of raising or cutting interest rate does the opposite in the short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Moses M. Sichei & Tewodros G. Gebreselasie & Olusegun A. Akanbi, 2005. "An Econometric Model of the Rand-US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate," Working Papers 200514, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:200514
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.up.ac.za/media/shared/61/WP/wp-14.zp39540.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, November.
    2. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1999. "Monetary Models of Dollar/Yen/Euro Nominal Exchange Rates: Dead or Undead?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 655-659, November.
    3. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:229-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    7. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    8. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    9. repec:fth:oxesaf:97-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2012. "Endogenous Structural Breaks and Real Exchange Rate Determination in Nigeria since Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)," MPRA Paper 98306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "Is the Rand Really Decoupled from Economic Fundamentals?," Working Papers 201439, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "An Empirical Test of Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 101303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Riané de Bruyn & Rangan Gupta & Lardo Stander, 2013. "Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(1), March.
    5. Mr. Alun H. Thomas, 2012. "Exchange Rate and Foreign Interest Rate Linkages for Sub-Saharan Africa Floaters," IMF Working Papers 2012/208, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Hummaira Jabeen, 2023. "US-Financial Conditions and Macro-economy of Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-63, March.
    7. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Exchange Rate Determination and Out of Sample Forecasting: Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 61997, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    2. Jose Eduardo de A. Ferreira, 2006. "Effects of Fundamentals on the Exchange Rate: A Panel Analysis for a Sample of Industrialised and Emerging Economies," Studies in Economics 0603, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    5. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 1996. "Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 61-76, January.
    6. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Joscha Beckmann, 2013. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Monetary Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 654-670, September.
    8. Chien-Chung Nieh & Yu-Shan Wang, 2005. "ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 55-71, August.
    9. Lee Chin & M. Azali & Zulkornain Yusop & Mohammed Yusoff, 2007. "The monetary model of exchange rate: evidence from The Philippines," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 993-997.
    10. Mark P. Taylor & L. Bainaud, 1996. "Prévision du taux de change dollar canadien contre dollar américain : une approche en termes de "fondamentaux"," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 45-51.
    11. Luis Felipe Lagos & Rodrigo Cerda, 2006. "Tipo de Cambio Nominal en un Régimen de Flotación: Chile 2000-2005," Documentos de Trabajo 313, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    12. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Cointegration, structural breaks and monetary fundamentals of the Dollar/Yen Exchange," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(4), pages 397-412, November.
    13. Éric Girardin & Velayoudom Marimoutou, 1997. "Les fondamentaux permettent-ils d'améliorer la prévision du taux de change franc-dollar ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 661-672.
    14. repec:zbw:rwirep:0134 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Oscar Bajo Rubio & María Dolores Montávez Garcés, 1998. "Tipo de cambio, expectativas y nueva información: evidencia para el caso de la peseta, 1986-1996," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9801, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    16. Kondo, Koji, 1997. "Statistical analysis of foreign exchange rates: application of cointegration model and regime-switching stochastic volatility model," ISU General Staff Papers 1997010108000012997, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Tasadduq Imam & Kevin Tickle & Abdullahi Ahmed & William Guo, 2012. "Linear Relationship Between The Aud/Usd Exchange Rate And The Respective Stock Market Indices: A Computational Finance Perspective," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 19-42, January.
    18. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Exchange Rate Determination and Out of Sample Forecasting: Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 61997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 0134, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    20. Joscha Beckmann & Dionysius Glycopantis & Keith Pilbeam, 2018. "The dollar–euro exchange rate and monetary fundamentals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1389-1410, June.
    21. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; overshooting model; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:200514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.