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The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Philippines Using ARDL Approach

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  • Long, Dara
  • Samreth, Sovannroeun

Abstract

In this paper, we re-examine the validity of both short and long run monetary models of exchange rate for the case of the Philippines by using new approach called Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to cointegration. From our analysis, some findings are obtained. First, there are robust short and long run relationships between variables in the monetary exchange rate model. Second, the stability of the estimated parameters is confirmed by CUSUM and CUMSUQ stability tests. Third, the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) condition is not hold for the Philippines. Last, all the monetary restrictions are rejected. Therefore, this result seems to suggest that the estimation result of the monetary model of exchange rate, in which monetary restrictions are assumed to be satisfied beforehand, might suffer from a number of deficiency; it is not appropriate to estimate the exchange rate model before the monetary restrictions are confirmed as also mentioned in Haynes and Stone (1981).

Suggested Citation

  • Long, Dara & Samreth, Sovannroeun, 2008. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Philippines Using ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 9822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9822
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    Cited by:

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    2. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money, Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(3), pages 95-104, March.
    3. Venus khim-sen Liew, 2009. "Linear and nonlinear monetary approaches to the exchange rate of the Philippines peso-Japanese yen," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1320-1329.
    4. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2014. "Financial development and economic growth in an oil-rich economy: The case of Saudi Arabia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 267-278.
    5. Adawo, Monday A. & Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2013. "Monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon: evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 46407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Somesh Kumar Mathur & Surendra Babu, 2014. "Modelling & Forecasting of Re/$ Exchange rate – An empirical analysis," 2nd International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-Economic Development 7741, EcoMod.
    7. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Chin-Hong Puah, 2009. "Monetary Model of Exchange Rate for Thailand: Long-run Relationship and Monetary Restrictions," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 385-395.
    8. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2011. "Demand for Money in Hungary: An ARDL Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 01-16, November.
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    10. Mandiefe, Piabuo Serge, 2015. "The impact of financial sector development on economic growth: analysis of the financial development gap between Cameroon and South Africa," MPRA Paper 64694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Payam MOHAMMAD ALIHA & Tamat SARMIDI & Fathin FAIZAH SAID, 2018. "Investigating The Effect Of Financial Innovations On The Demand For Money In Australia Using Dols And Fmols And Comparing Their Predictive Powers," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 17-30, July.
    12. Dara Long, 2010. "The Long-Run of Purchasing Power Parity: The Case of Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 32-54.
    13. Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2014. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Fundamentals: A Cointegrated SVAR Approach for Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 205-221, June.
    14. Evans, Olaniyi, 2013. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate in Nigeria: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," MPRA Paper 52457, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate model; ARDL approach to cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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