IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ekd/006666/7741.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling & Forecasting of Re/$ Exchange rate – An empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Somesh Kumar Mathur
  • Surendra Babu

Abstract

To model the factors affecting rupee dollar exchange rateTheoreticallly justifying use of all right hand side variables affecting rupee dollar exchange rate. Using FGLS,VAR,Bounds Approach and ARIMA for estimating the relationships between rupee dollar exchangeThis study covers two main topics: first modelling, where we discussed about the importance of variables like capital inflows, order flows, central bank intervention in modelling exchange rate. We empirically estimated the coefficients of explanatory variables after overcoming autocorrelation and unit root problems. It was found that only variables order flow, forward premium, trade balance, money supply and output has significant effect on exchange rate. We also checked for any long term relationship between variables, found that only money supply and output has long run relationship with exchange rate. All significant variables shows very small impact on exchange rate except forward premium. Empirical relations between variables and exchange rate support the theoretical relations. Second forecasting of exchange rate, we forecasted exchange rate using VAR, OLS, ARIMA model for three different sample period. Evaluated the forecasting performance of models by graphs and by error statistics. We found that VAR model yield more accurate forecasts than the OLS and ARIMA as it has very low Theil’s U and RMSE for all periods. Using VAR model we also forecasted out of sample for periods from January 2014- June 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Somesh Kumar Mathur & Surendra Babu, 2014. "Modelling & Forecasting of Re/$ Exchange rate – An empirical analysis," 2nd International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-Economic Development 7741, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:006666:7741
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ecomod.net/system/files/Exchange%20rate%20paper%20april%202014.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenen,Peter B., 2000. "The International Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521644358, January.
    2. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 11, pages 457-475, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Pami Dua & Partha Sen, 2006. "Capital Flow Volatility And Exchange Rates-- The Case Of India," Working papers 144, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    6. Pami Dua & Rajiv Ranjan, 2011. "Modelling and Forecasting the Indian Re/US Dollar Exchange Rate," Working papers 197, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    7. Sovannroeun SAMRETH & Dara LONG, 2008. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Philippines Using ARDL Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(31), pages 1-13.
    8. Ashima Goyal, 2010. "Evolution of India's exchange rate regime," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2010-024, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    9. Subrata Ghatak & Jalal Siddiki, 2001. "The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 573-583.
    10. Dua, Pami & Ranjan, Rajiv, 2012. "Exchange Rate Policy and Modelling in India," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198077206.
    11. Pankaj SINHA & Sushant GUPTA & Nakul RANDEV, 2011. "Modeling & Forecasting Of Macro-Economic Variables Of India: Before, During & After Recession," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 43-60.
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:31:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdul Rishad & Akhil Sharma & Sanjeev Gupta, 2018. "Demand for Money in India: An ARDL Approach," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Aswini Kumar Mishra & Vairam Arunachalam & Debasis Patnaik (ed.), Current Issues in the Economy and Finance of India, chapter 0, pages 27-42, Springer.
    2. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    3. Abdul Rishad & Sanjeev Gupta & Akhil Sharma, 2021. "Official Intervention and Exchange Rate Determination: Evidence from India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(3), pages 357-379, September.
    4. Ronald Kumar, 2014. "Exploring the role of technology, tourism and financial development: an empirical study of Vietnam," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 2881-2898, September.
    5. Biru Paul & Md. Uddin & Abdullah Noman, 2011. "Remittances and output in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 58(2), pages 229-242, June.
    6. Zied Akrout & Hamid Bachouch & Salim Moualdi, 2021. "Co-integration between Corruption and Economic Growth through Investment Channels: Empirical Evidence using the ARDL Bound Testing Approach for the Tunisian Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 26-33.
    7. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2017. "Drivers of India’s current account deficits, with implications for ameliorating them," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 23-32.
    8. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
    9. Md. Qamruzzaman & Rajnish Kler, 2023. "Do Clean Energy and Financial Innovation Induce SME Performance? Clarifying the Nexus between Financial Innovation, Technological Innovation, Clean Energy, Environmental Degradation, and SMEs Performa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 313-324, May.
    10. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "The Nexus between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Lao PDR," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(2), pages 303-317, April.
    11. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sari, Ramazan, 2011. "Financial CDS, stock market and interest rates: Which drives which?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 257-276.
    12. Sugandha Huria & Kanika Pathania, 2018. "Dynamics of Food Inflation: Assessing the Role of Intermediaries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1363-1378, October.
    13. A. Nurul Hossain & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2013. "Remittances and investment nexus in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 60(4), pages 387-407, December.
    14. Rakesh Kumar, 2021. "South Asia: Multilateral trade agreements and untapped regional trade integration," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2891-2903, April.
    15. Rafindadi, Abdulkadir Abdulrashid & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2015. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth nexus: Is the 10th Malaysian plan attainable within the limits of its resource?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1221-1232.
    16. Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Kumar, Radika, 2013. "Effects of energy consumption on per worker output: A study of Kenya and South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1187-1193.
    17. Izunna Chima Anyikwa & Lehlohonolo Domela, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 224-247, July.
    18. Bimal Sahoo & D. Nauriyal, 2014. "Determinants of software exports from India," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 455-479, December.
    19. Abdulkadir Abdulrashid Rafindadi & Isah Buhari Aliyu & Ojonugwa Usman, 2022. "Revisiting the electricity consumption-led growth hypothesis: is the rule defied in France?," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Mohd Haniff, NorAzza & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending in Malaysia? an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach," MPRA Paper 69769, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    India; Trade and regional integration; Trade and regional integration;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ekd:006666:7741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theresa Leary (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecomoea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.