IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/97735.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Dynamics and the Demographic Dividend Potential of Eastern and Southern Africa: A Primer

Author

Listed:
  • Cummins, Matthew

Abstract

This working paper provides an overview of demographic trends that are upending the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region and the potential to capitalize on the demographic dividend. The demographic dividend is the time-bound opportunity to catalyze economic growth and poverty reduction as the working age population expands due to falling birth and death rates. Using a variety of demographic variables, the paper describes the ongoing population boom in ESA alongside the move toward higher levels of savings and investment that can propel the production of more goods and services and hence greater income and opportunities. It then assesses the recent and likely trajectory of human capital in the region – a key determinant of the dividend – while also modelling an alternative policy path whereby governments immediately ensure that each newborn reaches their full physical and cognitive development while also completing secondary school. The paper concludes by highlighting the importance of greater and better investment in human capital sectors, which will determine how much of the remaining dividend can be salvaged, while also discussing how UNICEF and development partners can help.

Suggested Citation

  • Cummins, Matthew, 2019. "Population Dynamics and the Demographic Dividend Potential of Eastern and Southern Africa: A Primer," MPRA Paper 97735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97735
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/97735/1/MPRA_paper_97735.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "Africa'S Prospects For Enjoying A Demographic Dividend," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    2. Cummins, Matthew, 2019. "Fiscal Space for Children and Human Capital in Eastern and Southern Africa: Options and Strategic Entry Points to Address Investment Gaps in 16 Countries," MPRA Paper 96410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. David Canning, 2011. "The Causes and Consequences of the Demographic Transition," PGDA Working Papers 7911, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    4. Cummins, Matthew, 2019. "The Macroeconomic and Social Investment Outlook for Children in Eastern and Southern Africa," MPRA Paper 97734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ana L. ABELIANSKY & Eda ALGUR & David E. BLOOM & Klaus PRETTNER, 2020. "The future of work: Meeting the global challenges of demographic change and automation," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 159(3), pages 285-306, September.
    2. Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2022. "The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-90-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    3. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    4. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    5. Mesfin Mulugeta Woldegiorgis, 2023. "Drivers of demographic dividend in sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 387-413, July.
    6. Prettner, Klaus & Trimborn, Timo, 2012. "Demographic change and R&D-based economic growth: Reconciling theory and evidence," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 139, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    7. Goryakin, Yevgeniy & Rocco, Lorenzo & Suhrcke, Marc, 2017. "The contribution of urbanization to non-communicable diseases: Evidence from 173 countries from 1980 to 2008," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 151-163.
    8. Cheick Kader M’baye, 2023. "Fertility, employment, and the demographic dividend in sub-Saharan African countries with incipient demographic transition: evidence from Mali," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 1-15, June.
    9. Yeganeh Forouheshfar & Najat El Mekkaoui & Hippolyte d’Albis, 2020. "Demographics in MENA Countries: A Major Driver for Economic Growth," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 183-213, June.
    10. Sánchez-Romero, Miguel & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2017. "Redistributive effects of the US pension system among individuals with different life expectancy," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 51-74.
    11. Sébastien Fontenay & Paula Eugenia Gobbi & Marc Goñi, 2024. "Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the Role of Inheritance," Working Papers ECARES 2024-01, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Markus Dörflinger & Elke Loichinger, 2024. "Fertility decline, changes in age structure, and the potential for demographic dividends: A global analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(9), pages 221-290.
    13. Emmanuel Skoufias & Moulay Driss Zine Eddine El Idrissi, 2020. "Realizing Demographic Dividends in the Republic of Congo," World Bank Publications - Reports 34143, The World Bank Group.
    14. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2023. "The scientific revolution and its implications for long-run economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    15. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Hirazawa, Makoto & Yakita, Akira, 2017. "Labor supply of elderly people, fertility, and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 75-96.
    17. Dănuț-Vasile JEMNA & Mihaela DAVID, 2021. "Determinants of ageing in Romania. Evidence from regional-level panel analysis," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13(1), pages 17-32, May.
    18. Oosthuizen, Morné, 2024. "Education and South Africa’s waning demographic dividend," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    19. Elena Ambrosetti, 2022. "Migrations in the Mediterranean: old and new challenges and opportunities," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 76(2), pages 4-12, April-Jun.
    20. Hualiang Wei & Grant R. Bigg, 2017. "The Dominance of Food Supply in Changing Demographic Factors across Africa: A Model Using a Systems Identification Approach," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population growth Demographic transition Demographic dividend Labor supply Human capital Economic growth Social sector spending Human capital investment;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.