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Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth

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  • David E. Bloom

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

Demographic change in India is opening up new economic opportunities. As in many countries, declining infant and child mortality helped to spark lower fertility, effectively resulting in a temporary baby boom. As this cohort moves into working ages, India finds itself with a potentially higher share of workers as compared with dependents. If working-age people can be productively employed, India's economic growth stands to accelerate. Theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of demographics on labor supply, savings, and economic growth underpins this effort to understand and forecast economic growth in India. Policy choices can potentiate India's realization of economic benefits stemming from demographic change. Failure to take advantage of the opportunities inherent in demographic change can lead to economic stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    • Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:6511
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    File URL: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2011/PGDA_WP_65.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Jingxian Zou & Rundong Ji & Rui Mao, 2022. "The two‐way interaction between population aging and industrial transformation," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 311-335, April.
    2. Jain, Neha & Goli, Srinivas, 2021. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India," MPRA Paper 109560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ghani, Ejaz & O'Connell, Stephen D. & Sharma, Gunjan, 2013. "Friend or foe or family ? a tale of formal and informal plants in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6588, The World Bank.
    4. Stephan Klasen & Janneke Pieters, 2015. "What Explains the Stagnation of Female Labor Force Participation in Urban India?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 449-478.
    5. Neha Jain & Srinivas Goli, 2022. "Demographic Change and Economic Development in India," Working Papers 2262, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    6. Neha Jain & Srinivas Goli, 2022. "Demographic change and private savings in India," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 1-29, June.
    7. Karuna Bohini & C. Hussain Yaganti & Mini P. Thomas, 2022. "India’s Demographic Dividend: The Millennials’ Savings Conundrum," Millennial Asia, , vol. 13(1), pages 108-141, April.
    8. Mallick, Jagannath, 2017. "Structural Change and Productivity Growth in India and the People’s Republic of China," ADBI Working Papers 656, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Arpita Paul & Raj Kumar Verma, 2016. "Does Living Arrangement Affect Work Status, Morbidity, and Treatment Seeking of the Elderly Population? A Study of South Indian States," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(3), pages 21582440166, July.
    10. Gupta, Vineet & Dasgupta, Pinaki & Chakrabarty, Subhajit, 2013. "Satisfaction with life in cross-cultural setting – Case of European expatriates in India," MPRA Paper 54047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jain, Neha & Goli, Srinivas, 2021. "Potential demographic dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A macro-simulation projection using the spectrum model," SocArXiv rvf9n, Center for Open Science.
    12. Sirajul Islam & Prodip Chandra Roy, 2024. "Impact of Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth: Bangladesh Perspective," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 11(2), pages 95-123, February.
    13. Deokho Cho & Gik-Hwan Park, 2013. "The Analysis on the Poverty Characteristics of Baby Boomers -Using Models of Panel Data-," ERSA conference papers ersa13p766, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Farok J. Contractor & Vikas Kumar & Charles Dhanaraj, 2015. "Leveraging India: Global Interconnectedness and Locational Competitive Advantage," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 159-179, April.
    15. Chaurasia, Aalok Ranjan, 2020. "Economic Growth and Population Transition inChina and India 1990-2018," MPRA Paper 101130, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    age structure; China-India comparison; conditional convergence; demographic dividend; demographic transition; economic growth; economic growth in India; policy reform; population health; population of India;
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