IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/93682.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effects of US-China trade war and Trumponomics

Author

Listed:
  • Evans, Olaniyi

Abstract

Trumponomics describes the economic policies of U.S. President Donald Trump and has “America-first” approach. The Trump administration risks creating a more fragmented global economy and has started the biggest global trade war. The various sides are still on tenterhooks to impose additional tariffs worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Using deadweight loss (also known as excess burden or allocative inefficiency) and Harberger's triangle, this study shows that: the trade war is devastating not just for the US and China, but for the whole world economy: (i) the prices of items that directly affect consumers’ welfare will rise; (ii) firms will face extra costs for exports; (iii) investors will become more nervous; (iv) some investors will diversify into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies; (v) the trade war could turn into a currency war; (vi) even developed countries could be hit by the trade war; and (vii) tariffs applied on developing countries’ exports would rise steeply. In a trade war, everyone may lose.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Olaniyi, 2019. "The effects of US-China trade war and Trumponomics," MPRA Paper 93682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93682
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/93682/1/MPRA_paper_93682.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/94137/1/MPRA_paper_93682.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bo Chen & Hong Ma, 2012. "Trade Restrictiveness and Deadweight Loss in China¡¯s Imports," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 7(3), pages 478-494, September.
    2. Simon Porcher, 2014. "Efficiency and equity in two-part tariffs: the case of residential water rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 539-555, February.
    3. Zissimos, Ben, 2017. "A theory of trade policy under dictatorship and democratization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 85-101.
    4. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Optimal Tariffs: Should Australia Cut Automotive Tariffs Unilaterally?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 143-161, June.
    5. Tobin, James, 1977. "How Dead Is Keynes?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(4), pages 459-468, October.
    6. Douglas A. Irwin, 2010. "Trade Restrictiveness and Deadweight Losses from US Tariffs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 111-133, August.
    7. Arnaud Costinot, 2009. "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: A "New" Perspective on Protectionism," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(5), pages 1011-1041, September.
    8. Amit K. Biswas & Sarbajit Sengupta, 2015. "Corrupt Importers, Domestic Producers & Welfare: Role of Trade Policy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 459-487, November.
    9. Ian Fletcher, 2011. "Why the theory of comparative advantage is wrong," International Journal of Pluralism and Economics Education, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 421-429.
    10. Rugman, Alan M. & Li, Jing, 2007. "Will China's Multinationals Succeed Globally or Regionally?," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 333-343, October.
    11. Christopher S. P. Magee, 2011. "Why Are Trade Barriers So Low?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 12-17, October.
    12. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "Tax Avoidance And The Deadweight Loss Of The Income Tax," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 674-680, November.
    13. Michael Perelman, 2011. "Retrospectives: X-Efficiency," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 211-222, Fall.
    14. Wang, Qiang & Chen, Xi, 2012. "China's electricity market-oriented reform: From an absolute to a relative monopoly," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 143-148.
    15. Arnold C. Harberger & Richard Just, 2012. "A Conversation with Arnold Harberger," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, August.
    16. Ms. Yevgeniya Korniyenko & Magali Pinat & Brian Dew, 2017. "Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade: The Impact of Localized Supply Shocks Using Network Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2017/030, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Edward Alden, 2018. "Trump: Reckless Free Trader or Genuine Protectionist?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 53(4), pages 239-240, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Evans, Olaniyi, 2018. "Blockchain Technology and the Financial Market: An Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 99212, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Spackman, Michael, 2021. "Social discounting and the cost of public funding in practice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111490, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Chen, Bo & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2014. "Measuring China’s trade liberalization: A generalized measure of trade restrictiveness index," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 994-1006.
    3. Bo Chen & Hong Ma & David S. Jacks, 2017. "Revisiting the Effective Rate of Protection in the Late Stages of Chinese Industrialisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 424-438, February.
    4. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    5. Fu, Tong & Jian, Ze, 2020. "A developmental state: How to allocate electricity efficiently in a developing country," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Niels Johannesen & Thomas Tørsløv & Ludvig Wier, 2016. "Are less developed countries more exposed to multinational tax avoidance? Method and evidence from micro-data," WIDER Working Paper Series 010, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Slemrod, Joel, 1998. "Methodological Issues in Measuring and Interpreting Taxable Income Elasticities," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 51(n. 4), pages 773-88, December.
    8. David S. Lee & Pauline Leung & Christopher J. O’Leary & Zhuan Pei & Simon Quach, 2021. "Are Sufficient Statistics Necessary? Nonparametric Measurement of Deadweight Loss from Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S2), pages 455-506.
    9. Raphaël Homayoun Boroumand & Stéphane Goutte & Simon Porcher & Thomas Porcher, 2014. "A Conditional Markov Regime Switching Model to Study Margins: Application to the French Fuel Retail Markets," Working Papers hal-01090837, HAL.
    10. Clegg, Jeremy & Lin, Hsin Mei & Voss, Hinrich & Yen, I-Fan & Shih, Yi Tien, 2016. "The OFDI patterns and firm performance of Chinese firms: The moderating effects of multinationality strategy and external factors," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 971-985.
    11. Bas Jacobs, 2002. "An investigation of education finance reform; graduate taxes and income contingent loans in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 9.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Ian Keay, 2019. "Protection for maturing industries: Evidence from Canadian trade patterns and trade policy, 1870–1913," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 1464-1496, November.
    13. Lin Cui & Fuming Jiang, 2010. "Behind ownership decision of Chinese outward FDI: Resources and institutions," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 751-774, December.
    14. Chen, Hao & Cui, Jian & Song, Feng & Jiang, Zhigao, 2022. "Evaluating the impacts of reforming and integrating China's electricity sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Caravella, Serenella & Crespi, Francesco & Cucignatto, Giacomo & Guarascio, Dario, 2023. "Technological Sovereignty and Strategic Dependencies: The case of the Photovoltaic Supply Chain," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1330, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Liu, Yulong & Yu, Yang, 2018. "Institutions, firm resources and the foreign establishment mode choices of Chinese firms: The moderating role of home regional institutional development," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 111-121.
    17. Parry, Ian W. H., 2002. "Funding transportation spending in metropolitan Washington, DC: the costs of alternative revenue sources," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 362-390, September.
    18. Seng-Eun Choi, 2014. "Is Self-Employment Income More Responsive to Income Tax Rate?," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 30, pages 67-84.
    19. Younes Ben Zaied & Marie Estelle Binet, 2015. "Modelling seasonality in residential water demand: the case of Tunisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(19), pages 1983-1996, April.
    20. Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Nicole M. Bosch & Miriam D. A. C. Gielen & Egbert L. W. Jongen, 2017. "Heterogeneity in Labour Supply Responses: Evidence from a Major Tax Reform," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(5), pages 769-796, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trumponomics; US-China Trade War; Consumers; Stocks; Cryptocurrency; Brexit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93682. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.