IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/92005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: VAR Evidence for Albania

Author

Listed:
  • Matuka, Adelajda

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of exchange rate shocks to prices in Albania from 2000Q1 to 2017Q1. The empirical analysis is based on a Vector Autoregressive approach for Albanian economy following Cholesky decomposition scheme. Impulse-response functions give evidence for an incomplete “pass-through” of exchange rate shocks to prices. Impulse-response functions to oil shocks indicates initial positive values for import and producer prices and negative value for consumer prices and interest rates. Variance decomposition reveal that the highest fluctuations of import prices is triggered by growth rate and oil prices shocks, whereas the variance of producer prices and consumer prices is explained by its own innovations. Exchange rate’s innovations are less aggressive to import prices and producer prices then to consumer prices. We perform the robustness check allowing interest rate to be ordered before exchange rates and the results do not change from the previous findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Matuka, Adelajda, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: VAR Evidence for Albania," MPRA Paper 92005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/92005/1/MPRA_paper_92005.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerti Shijaku, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Pass-through Effects of Monetary Policy through Sign Restrictions Approach: In the Case of Albania," IHEID Working Papers 11-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    3. Erjon Luci & Marta Muco & Peter Sanfey, 2001. "Stabilization, monetary policy and financial institutions in Albania," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 16, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Paul J. Siegelbaum & Khaled Sherif & Michael Borish & George Clarke, 2002. "Structural Adjustment in the Transition : Case Studies from Albania, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Moldova," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14052.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    6. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
    8. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Adjustment costs and pricing-to-market theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 1-30, February.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    10. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    11. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2002. "Macroeconomics of international price discrimination," Working Paper Series 176, European Central Bank.
    12. Froot, Kenneth A & Klemperer, Paul D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 637-654, September.
    13. Peter Hooper & Catherine L. Mann, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in the 1980s: The Case of U.S. Imports of Manufactures," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 297-337.
    14. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Rachid Ouchchikh, 2017. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in a Small Open Economy under Fixed Exchange Rate: An SVAR Approach for Morocco," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 11(1), pages 42-51, December.
    16. Chris Jarvis, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of the Pyramid Schemes in Albania," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 1-1.
    17. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    18. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    19. Mr. Marco Rossi & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2002/204, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198759980.
    21. Daniel Vaughan-Whitehead, 1999. "Albania in Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 442.
    22. International Monetary Fund, 2018. "Albania: 2018 First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release and Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2018/123, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul Christian Espinoza Ipanaque, 2023. "Pass-through del tipo de cambio en América Latina," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(4), pages 1-15, Octubre -.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    3. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gonzalez Minguez, Jose M., 2006. "Differences in exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 121-145, January.
    4. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    5. José Antonio Rodríguez-López, 2011. "Prices and Exchange Rates: A Theory of Disconnect," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(3), pages 1135-1177.
    6. Rebecca Hellerstein, 2005. "A Decomposition of the Sources of Incomplete Cross-Border Transmission," 2005 Meeting Papers 805, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Raphael A. Auer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1617-1650, December.
    8. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "The Signaling Effect of Exchange Rates: pass-through under dispersed information," Working Papers Series 282, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Andreas Bachmann, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through to various price indices: empirical estimation using vector error correction models," Diskussionsschriften dp1205, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    10. Hernán Rincón & Édgar Caicedo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through effects: a disaggregate analysis of Colombian imports of manufactured goods," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(54), pages 90-121, June.
    11. Philippe Andrade, 2010. "Competition and Pass-through on international markets: Firm-level evidence from VAT shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 820, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Hellerstein, Rebecca & Villas-Boas, Sofia Berto, 2006. "Arm's-Length Transactions as a Source of Incomplete Cross-Border Transmission: the Case of Autos," CUDARE Working Papers 7196, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    13. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    14. Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2008. "Sensibilidad del IPC a la Tasa de Cambio en Colombia: Una Medición de Largo Plazo," Borradores de Economia 542, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2004. "The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 783-799, September.
    16. Capistrán Carlos & Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2011-12, Banco de México.
    17. Valerie Herzberg & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2003. "Import prices and exchange rate pass-through: theory and evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 182, Bank of England.
    18. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    19. Fatma Marrakchi Charfi & Mohamed Kadria, 2016. "Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through Transmission To Prices: An Svar Model For Tunisia," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(04), pages 1-23, December.
    20. N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2010. "Electricity Demand Analysis and Forecasting- The Tradition is Questioned," Working Papers id:2966, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Pass Through Effect; Inflation; Vector Autoregressive;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.