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A New Approach to Modelling Sector Stock Returns in China

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  • Chong, Terence Tai Leung
  • Li, Nasha
  • Zou, Lin

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between excess stock returns and the macroeconomy of China. A factor-augmented regression is applied to a panel of 123 monthly Chinese macroeconomic time series. Eight fundamental macroeconomic factors are identified and used to examine the excess returns in industrial, commercial, real estate and utilities sectors of the market. It is found that interest rate, output level, as well as property supply factors possess explanatory power for sector stock returns in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Li, Nasha & Zou, Lin, 2016. "A New Approach to Modelling Sector Stock Returns in China," MPRA Paper 80554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80554
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    Cited by:

    1. Elizaveta V. Anufrieva, 2019. "Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on the Return of Russian Stock Exchange Indices," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 4, pages 75-87, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor-augmented regression; Excess stock returns; Common factors.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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