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Trade Policies and Poverty in Uganda: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis

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  • Ayoki, Milton

Abstract

This paper uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework and benchmark data from Uganda national household survey to estimate the impact of trade liberalisation on poverty in Uganda. Three simulations are performed: removal of EAC tariffs, removal of non-EAC COMESA tariffs and removal of all tariffs. Our results indicate that poverty falls in all cases, but poverty falls much more in the case of a complete removal of tariffs on all imports (2.94%), compared with the case of removal of EAC tariffs (2.76%) or non-EAC COMESA tariffs (1.08%).

Suggested Citation

  • Ayoki, Milton, 2013. "Trade Policies and Poverty in Uganda: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," MPRA Paper 80327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80327
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2002. "Estimating the poverty impacts of trade liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2790, The World Bank.
    7. Winters, L Alan, 2000. "Trade, Trade Policy and Poverty: What Are The Links?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Cahiers de recherche 9909, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
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    10. repec:bla:devpol:v:23:y:2005:i:3:p:313-331 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard, 2005. "Impact Analysis of the Liberalization of Groundnut Production in Senegal: A Multi-household Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 05-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    12. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2003. "Analysis of Trade Reforms, Income Inequality and Poverty Using Microsimulation Approach: The Case of the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2003-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    13. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigue Nobosse Tchoffo & Ibrahim Ngouhouo, 2020. "Cameroon’s Bilateral Economic Partnership Agreement: A Microsimulation Approach," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 67-84, March.
    2. Ayoki, Milton & Obwona, Marios, 2005. "Illicit Trade in East Africa: What Do We Really Know?," MPRA Paper 80128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2009.
    3. Ayoki, Milton, 2017. "Estimating the Revenue Impacts of Tax Harmonisation," MPRA Paper 83548, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium Models; Micro-Simulation Analysis; Trade Policies; Poverty; Uganda.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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