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Stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté au Sénégal : une analyse par la modélisation en équilibre général calculable microsimulé

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  • Boccanfuso, Dorothée

    (Département d’économique, Université de Sherbrooke, Groupe de recherche en économie et développement international (GREDI))

  • Cabral, François

    (Consortium pour la recherche économique et sociale (CRES), Université Cheik Anta Diop, GREDI)

  • Cissé, Fatou

    (Consortium pour la recherche économique et sociale (CRES), Université Cheik Anta Diop, GREDI)

  • Diagne, Abdoulaye

    (Consortium pour la recherche économique et sociale (CRES), Université Cheik Anta Diop, GREDI)

  • Savard, Luc

    (Département d’économique, Université de Sherbrooke, GREDI)

Abstract

The new economic policy in Senegal aims to increase income of the poor and reduce its incidence. Poverty reduction strategy will be implemented in the context of trade liberalization in the agricultural sector. In the paper we develop a microsimulation computable general equilibrium model to analyze the distributional impact of economic reforms. This approach offers a good framework to link economic policies with poverty and inequality indices. Our results reveal negative impact of increases in world prices of agricultural imports. Policies targeting an increase in the productivity of farmers favor urban households over rural households. The results obtained from our model proposed herein reveal the importance of incidence analysis when policy makers design targeting policies. La nouvelle orientation de la politique économique au Sénégal vise à accroître les revenus des pauvres et à attaquer la pauvreté là où elle est principalement localisée. La stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté va être mise en oeuvre dans un contexte de libéralisation des échanges commerciaux internationaux notamment dans le secteur agricole. Dans ce contexte, nous avons développé un modèle d’équilibre général calculable microsimulé multiménages intégrés permettant d’évaluer l’impact de politiques au niveau des ménages. Nous avons établi le lien entre ces réformes économiques, la pauvreté et la distribution de revenu. Ce modèle offre beaucoup de flexibilité et permet d’introduire des mécanismes de transmission entre les politiques et les indices d’inégalité et pauvreté. Les impacts négatifs obtenus sur la pauvreté suite à l’augmentation du prix des importations agricoles se révèlent importants. De plus, les résultats mitigés obtenus pour les pauvres en milieu rural devraient amener le gouvernement à s’interroger sur la stratégie d’aide à la productivité agricole, afin de prévenir de tels résultats. Nos résultats montrent ainsi que cette approche est un outil riche permettant d’évaluer l’impact de politiques économiques ou de chocs externes sur la pauvreté et la distribution de revenu.

Suggested Citation

  • Boccanfuso, Dorothée & Cabral, François & Cissé, Fatou & Diagne, Abdoulaye & Savard, Luc, 2007. "Stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté au Sénégal : une analyse par la modélisation en équilibre général calculable microsimulé," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 483-528, décembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:83:y:2007:i:4:p:483-528
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    Cited by:

    1. Maisonnave, Hélène & Mamboundou, Pierre Nziengui, 2022. "Agricultural economic reforms, gender inequality and poverty in Senegal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 361-374.
    2. Lemelin, André & Savard, Luc, 2022. "What do CGE models have to say about fiscal reform?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 758-774.
    3. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Celine de Quatrebarbes & Luc Savard, 2011. "Can the removal of VAT Exemptions support the Poor? The Case of Niger," CERDI Working papers halshs-00577148, HAL.
    4. Mame Cheikh Anta Sall & Adriana Burlea-Schiopoiu, 2021. "An Analysis of the Effects of Public Investment on Labor Demand through the Channel of Economic Growth with a Focus on Socio-Professional Categories and Gender," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-16, December.
    5. de Quatrebarbes, Céline & Boccanfuso, Dorothée & Savard, Luc, 2016. "Beyond representative households: The macro–micro impact analysis of VAT designs applied to Niger," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 76-92.
    6. Nziengui Mamboundou, Pierre, 2019. "Agricultural economic reforms, gender inequalities and poverty in Senegal," Conference papers 333063, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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