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How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands

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  • Miss Nkunde Mwase

Abstract

This paper investigates the drivers of reserves in emerging markets (EMs) and small island (SIs) and develops an operational metric for estimating reserves in SIs taking into account their unique characteristics. It uses quantile regression techniques to allow the estimated factors driving reserves holdings to vary along the reserves’ holding distribution and tests for equality among the slope coefficients of the various quantile regressions and the overall models. F-tests comparing the inter-quantile differences could not reject the that the models for the different quantiles of SIs reserve distribution were similar but this was rejected for EMs distribution suggesting that models explaining drivers of reserve holdings should take into account the country’s reserve holdings. Empirical analysis suggests that the metric performs better than existing metrics in reducing crisis probabilities in SIs.

Suggested Citation

  • Miss Nkunde Mwase, 2012. "How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands," IMF Working Papers 2012/205, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/205
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ms. Rina Bhattacharya & Katja Mann & Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2018. "Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups," IMF Working Papers 2018/047, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Quy Ta & Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy, 2022. "“How Do Shocks Affect International Reserves? A Quasi-Experiment of Earthquakes”," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 945-971, November.
    4. Csávás Csaba & Csom-Bíró Gabriella, 2017. "Indicators Used for the Assessment of the Reserve Adequacy of Emerging and Developing Countries – International Trends in the Mirror of Theories," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(1), pages 5-45.
    5. Hakan Öztunç & Mehmet Orhan, 2021. "Gold Demand by Central Banks: A Comparative Study of Emerging Market and Advanced Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(9), pages 2687-2698, July.

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