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Harvesting Control Rules that deal with Scientific Uncertainty

Author

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  • Da-Rocha, Jose-Maria
  • García-Cutrin, Javier
  • Gutierrez, Maria Jose

Abstract

By using robustness methods we design HCRs that explicitly include scientific uncertainty. Under scientific uncertainty –when the perceived model can be generated by a nearby op- erating model– robust HCRs are designed assuming that the (inferred) operating model is more persistent than the perceived model. As a result, a robust HCR has a steeper ratio between fishing mortality and biomass than a non robust one. We prove that constant effort HCRs are not robust. Moreover, rather than decreasing fishing mortality reference points for exploitation, the optimal robust response to scientific uncertainty is to increases biomass precautionary limit points when knowledge about the stock status decreases. Finally, we show that robustness can be implemented if fishing mortality is increased faster than lin- early –by a factor of 2-fold– when a stock is assessed as above 0.5BMSY. We illustrate our findings by designing HCRs for 17 ICES stocks using this rule of thumb.

Suggested Citation

  • Da-Rocha, Jose-Maria & García-Cutrin, Javier & Gutierrez, Maria Jose, 2016. "Harvesting Control Rules that deal with Scientific Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 72059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anastasios Xepapadeas & Catarina Roseta-Palma, 2013. "Instabilities and robust control in natural resource management," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(3), pages 161-180, December.
    2. José-María Da-Rocha & Rosa Mato-Amboage, 2016. "On the Benefits of Including Age-Structure in Harvest Control Rules," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(4), pages 619-641, August.
    3. Rognvaldur Hannesson, 1975. "Fishery Dynamics: A North Atlantic Cod Fishery," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 8(2), pages 151-173, May.
    4. Athanassoglou, Stergios & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2012. "Pollution control with uncertain stock dynamics: When, and how, to be precautious," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 304-320.
    5. Catarina Roseta-Palma & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2004. "Robust Control in Water Management," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 21-34, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. ¿Estamos evaluando correctamente el riesgo de sobre-explotación de las pesquerías?
      by José María Da Rocha in Foco Económico on 2016-09-27 02:00:38

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HCR; Robustness;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery

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