IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/70942.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

“Every cloud has a silver lining”; to what extent does the Arab Spring accelerate the integration among Arab monarchies?

Author

Listed:
  • Bouoiyour, Jamal
  • Selmi, Refk
  • Miftah, Amal

Abstract

This study fleshes out the role that may play the Arab revolution in strengthening regional integration. It rigorously assesses the extent of change in the degree of financial interdependence among Arab Monarchies (i.e., Arab Gulf countries, Jordan and Morocco) with the onset of the Arab Spring events. Our results reveal a significant time-varying volatility spillover effects, highlighting a greater interdependency across the focal Arab stock markets. It is also well shown that compared to the Morocco, there is a higher degree of financial integration of Jordan vis-à-vis the Gulf countries. Notably, a different integration patterns arises when accounting for the aftermath of revolution. Under the post-uprisings period, the stock market correlation between Morocco and Gulf countries increase substantially to values as high as the ones of Jordan. This implies that the Arab Spring has changed the nature of shock transmission between these countries, and thus may be perceived as a revival of integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Miftah, Amal, 2015. "“Every cloud has a silver lining”; to what extent does the Arab Spring accelerate the integration among Arab monarchies?," MPRA Paper 70942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:70942
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/70942/1/MPRA_paper_70942.PDF
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 280-310, April.
    2. Riad Dahel & Belkacem Laabas, 1999. "The Behavior of Stock Prices in the GCC Markets," Working Papers 9917, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 1999.
    3. Sorensen, Bent E. & Wu, Yi-Tsung & Yosha, Oved & Zhu, Yu, 2007. "Home bias and international risk sharing: Twin puzzles separated at birth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 587-605, June.
    4. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin, 2005. "Multivariate Markov switching dynamic conditional correlation GARCH representations for contagion analysis," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 14(2), pages 145-161, November.
    5. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731.
    6. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Financial globalization and real regionalization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 207-243, November.
    7. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Urias, Michael S, 1996. "Diversification, Integration and Emerging Market Closed-End Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 835-869, July.
    9. Driessen, Joost & Laeven, Luc, 2007. "International portfolio diversification benefits: Cross-country evidence from a local perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1693-1712, June.
    10. Yu, Keming & Moyeed, Rana A., 2001. "Bayesian quantile regression," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 437-447, October.
    11. Yue, Yu Ryan & Rue, Håvard, 2011. "Bayesian inference for additive mixed quantile regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 84-96, January.
    12. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    13. Takagi, Shinji, 2012. "Establishing Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council: What Lessons for Regional Cooperation?," ADBI Working Papers 390, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    14. Dries F. Benoit & Dirk Van den Poel, 2012. "Binary quantile regression: a Bayesian approach based on the asymmetric Laplace distribution," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1174-1188, November.
    15. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2016. "The infernal couple China-Oil Price and the Responses of G7 Equities: A QQ Approach," MPRA Paper 70379, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernardi, Mauro & Bottone, Marco & Petrella, Lea, 2018. "Bayesian quantile regression using the skew exponential power distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 92-111.
    2. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2017. "The Bitcoin price formation: Beyond the fundamental sources," Working Papers hal-01548710, HAL.
    3. Yukiko Omata & Hajime Katayama & Toshi. H. Arimura, 2017. "Same concerns, same responses? A Bayesian quantile regression analysis of the determinants for supporting nuclear power generation in Japan," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(3), pages 581-608, July.
    4. Sriram, Karthik, 2015. "A sandwich likelihood correction for Bayesian quantile regression based on the misspecified asymmetric Laplace density," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 18-26.
    5. Yuta Kurose & Yasuhiro Omori, 2012. "Bayesian Analysis of Time-Varying Quantiles Using a Smoothing Spline," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-845, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Seongil Jo & Taeyoung Roh & Taeryon Choi, 2016. "Bayesian spectral analysis models for quantile regression with Dirichlet process mixtures," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 177-206, March.
    7. Anil K. Bera & Antonio F. Galvao Jr. & Gabriel V. Montes-Rojas & Sung Y. Park, 2014. "Which Quantile is the Most Informative? Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Entropy and Quantile Regression," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kaddour Hadri & William Mikhail (ed.), Econometric Methods and Their Applications in Finance, Macro and Related Fields, chapter 7, pages 167-199, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Jones Odei Mensah & Gamini Premaratne, 2019. "Exploring Diversification Benefits In Asian Equity Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 517-542, June.
    9. Genya Kobayashi & Hideo Kozumi, 2012. "Bayesian analysis of quantile regression for censored dynamic panel data," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 359-380, June.
    10. Alexander Razen & Wolfgang Brunauer & Nadja Klein & Thomas Kneib & Stefan Lang & Nikolaus Umlauf, 2014. "Statistical Risk Analysis for Real Estate Collateral Valuation using Bayesian Distributional and Quantile Regression," Working Papers 2014-12, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    11. Xianhua Dai & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Keming Yu, 2016. "Do maternal health problems influence child's worrying status? Evidence from the British Cohort Study," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2941-2955, December.
    12. Karthik Sriram & R. V. Ramamoorthi & Pulak Ghosh, 2016. "On Bayesian Quantile Regression Using a Pseudo-joint Asymmetric Laplace Likelihood," Sankhya A: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 78(1), pages 87-104, February.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-021 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Rahim Alhamzawi & Haithem Taha Mohammad Ali, 2020. "Brq: an R package for Bayesian quantile regression," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 78(3), pages 313-328, December.
    15. Haas, Markus, 2010. "Covariance forecasts and long-run correlations in a Markov-switching model for dynamic correlations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 86-97, June.
    16. Mensi, Walid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Zeitun, Rami & Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2017. "Diversification potential of Asian frontier, BRIC emerging and major developed stock markets: A wavelet-based value at risk approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 130-147.
    17. Adekunle, Salami Saheed & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Assessing the viability of Sukuk for portfolio diversification using MS-DCC-GARCH," MPRA Paper 79443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Dries Benoit & Rahim Alhamzawi & Keming Yu, 2013. "Bayesian lasso binary quantile regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 2861-2873, December.
    19. Maria Marino & Alessio Farcomeni, 2015. "Linear quantile regression models for longitudinal experiments: an overview," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 73(2), pages 229-247, August.
    20. Kneib, Thomas & Silbersdorff, Alexander & Säfken, Benjamin, 2023. "Rage Against the Mean – A Review of Distributional Regression Approaches," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 99-123.
    21. Yunwen Yang & Huixia Judy Wang & Xuming He, 2016. "Posterior Inference in Bayesian Quantile Regression with Asymmetric Laplace Likelihood," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 84(3), pages 327-344, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arab Spring; Arab stock markets; financial integration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:70942. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.