IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/68357.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ex Tridenti Mercatus? Sea-power and Maritime Trade in the Age of Globalization

Author

Listed:
  • Glaser, Darrell
  • Rahman, Ahmed

Abstract

This paper tests an implication of the hypothesis that hegemons provide increased global stability and thus promote international commerce. Specifically, we measure the influence of naval power projections on global trade during the latter 19th and early 20th centuries, a time of relative peace and robust commercial activity. We use archival data on the navies of Britain, France, the United States and Germany, capturing longitudinal measures of ship deployment, tonnage, and ship personnel. First we develop an empirical naval arms race model, and demonstrate that the navies of Britain and France in particular responded rigorously to each other. We then use our estimates of naval power projected around the world by Britain and France to measure their effects on bilateral trade in a panel-data gravity model. Results indicate that while navies had some positive impact on their own nation's trade, other nations' trade suffered. Our results show that rather than bolster globalization, the first global arms race damaged commercial interests and lowered trade potential around the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Glaser, Darrell & Rahman, Ahmed, 2015. "Ex Tridenti Mercatus? Sea-power and Maritime Trade in the Age of Globalization," MPRA Paper 68357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68357
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/68357/1/MPRA_paper_68357.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irwin, Douglas A. & Tervio, Marko, 2002. "Does trade raise income?: Evidence from the twentieth century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2002. "Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1125-1151, June.
    3. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    4. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
    5. Mansfield, Edward D. & Bronson, Rachel, 1997. "Alliances, Preferential Trading Arrangements, and International Trade," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(1), pages 94-107, March.
    6. Rahman, Ahmed S., 2010. "Fighting the forces of gravity - Seapower and maritime trade between the 18th and 20th centuries," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 28-48, January.
    7. Rockoff,Hugh, 2012. "America's Economic Way of War," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521859400.
    8. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2011. "Trade and Poverty: When the Third World Fell Behind," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262015158, April.
    9. Hilt, Eric, 2008. "The negative trade-off between risk and incentives: Evidence from the american whaling industry," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 424-444, September.
    10. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    11. Douglas A. Irwin, 2005. "The Welfare Cost of Autarky: Evidence from the Jeffersonian Trade Embargo, 1807–09," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 631-645, September.
    12. Morck, Randall & Nakamura, Masao, 2007. "Business Groups and the Big Push: Meiji Japan's Mass Privatization and Subsequent Growth," Enterprise & Society, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 543-601, September.
    13. Douglas A. Irwin & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2013. "Coping with Shocks and Shifts: The Multilateral Trading System in Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 11-37, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Darrell J. Glaser & Ahmed S. Rahman, 2014. "Engineering and labor specialization during the industrial revolution," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 8(2), pages 173-200, May.
    15. O’Rourke, Kevin H. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2002. "When did globalisation begin?," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 23-50, April.
    16. Harley, C. Knick, 1988. "Ocean Freight Rates and Productivity, 1740–1913: The Primacy of Mechanical Invention Reaffirmed," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 851-876, December.
    17. Mansfield, Edward D. & Pevehouse, Jon C., 2000. "Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(4), pages 775-808, October.
    18. Hilt, Eric, 2006. "Incentives in Corporations: Evidence from the American Whaling Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 197-227, April.
    19. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    20. Irwin, Douglas A, 1991. "Mercantilism as Strategic Trade Policy: The Anglo-Dutch Rivalry for the East India Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1296-1314, December.
    21. Gregory D. Hess (ed.), 2009. "Guns and Butter: The Economic Causes and Consequences of Conflict," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012812, April.
    22. Meissner, Christopher M., 2005. "A new world order: explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard, 1870-1913," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 385-406, July.
    23. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2004. "Empire, Public Goods, and the Roosevelt Corollary," NBER Working Papers 10729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. repec:idb:brikps:20038 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Robert Devlin & Antoni Estevadeordal & Alan M. Taylor & Anthony J. Venables & Alícia Adserà & Carles Boix & Sam Laird & Patrick A. Messerlin & Ramón Torrent & Marise Cremona & Walter Mattli & Jacint J, 2003. "Bridges for Development: Policies and Institutions for Trade and Integration," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 20038 edited by Robert Devlin & Antoni Estevadeordal, February.
    26. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 1994. "Economic Diplomacy, Trade And Commercial Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 447.
    27. Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc, 2005. "Empire, Public Goods, and the Roosevelt Corollary," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 658-692, September.
    28. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Trade and Poverty: When the Third World Fell Behind," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262015153, April.
    29. Douglas A. Irwin & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2013. "Coping with Shocks and Shifts: The Multilateral Trading System in Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 11-37 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nizan Feldman & Ehud Eiran & Aviad Rubin, 2021. "Naval Power and Effects of Third-Party Trade on Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(2-3), pages 342-371, February.
    2. Karl Skogstad, 2017. "The effectiveness of Canada's navy on escort duty," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 21(1), pages 104-132.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meissner, Christopher M., 2014. "Growth from Globalization? A View from the Very Long Run," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 8, pages 1033-1069, Elsevier.
    2. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    3. Chilosi, David & Federico, Giovanni, 2015. "Early globalizations: The integration of Asia in the world economy, 1800–1938," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Jacopo Timini, 2018. "Currency unions and heterogeneous trade effects: the case of the Latin Monetary Union [Bilateral treaties and the most-favored-nation clause: the myth of trade liberalization in the nineteenth cent," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(3), pages 322-348.
    5. Kris James Mitchener & Marc Weidenmier, 2008. "Trade and Empire," NBER Working Papers 13765, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-126 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Elia & Petros G. Sekeris, 2014. "US Security Strategy and the Gains from Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 863-885, November.
    8. Klasing, Mariko & Milionis, Petros, 2012. "Reassessing the Evolution of World Trade, 1870-1949," MPRA Paper 39555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870–1939," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 359-407.
    10. NAKABAYASHI, Masaki, 2008. "Imposed Efficiency of Treaty Port: Japanese Industrialization and Western Imperialist Institutions," ISS Discussion Paper Series (series F) f142, Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo, revised 15 Jun 2012.
    11. Anderton Charles H. & Anderton Roxane A., 2021. "The Trade Disruption Hypothesis Fails for State-Sponsored Genocides and Mass Atrocities: Why It Matters," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 143-168, May.
    12. Lars Karlsson & Peter Hedberg, 2021. "War and trade in the peaceful century: the impact of interstate wars on bilateral trade flows during the first wave of globalization, 1830–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(3), pages 809-830, August.
    13. Luigi Pascali, 2017. "The Wind of Change: Maritime Technology, Trade, and Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(9), pages 2821-2854, September.
    14. Rahman, Ahmed S., 2010. "Fighting the forces of gravity - Seapower and maritime trade between the 18th and 20th centuries," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 28-48, January.
    15. Joseph A. Francis, 2015. "The Periphery's Terms of Trade in the Nineteenth Century: A Methodological Problem Revisited," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 52-65, March.
    16. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    17. Badinger, Harald, 2008. "Trade policy and productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 867-891, July.
    18. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2012. "The Geography of Conflicts and Regional Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 1-35, October.
    19. Jacopo Timini, 2018. "The drivers of Italian exports and product market entry: 1862-1913 (Updated August 2020)," Working Papers 1836, Banco de España, revised Aug 2020.
    20. Mitchener, Kris James & Shizume, Masato & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2010. "Why did Countries Adopt the Gold Standard? Lessons from Japan," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 27-56, March.
    21. Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Trade, conflict, and political integration: Explaining the heterogeneity of regional trade agreements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 54-71.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; arms race; 19th century; war; mercantilism; naval power;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • N4 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.