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The Effect of Oil Prices and Regime Switches on Real Effective Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Markov Regime Switching Approach

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  • Syed Ahmed, Shujaat
  • Qayyum, Abdul

Abstract

This study takes into the account relationship between oil prices and real effective exchange rate by using different exchange rate regimes in Pakistan. In this study following (Meese and Rogoff, 1988) and (Throop,1993) Interest Rate Parity has been used to construct a model by using real effective exchange rate, Dubai crude oil price and interest rate differential from period of 1970m01 to 2014m03. Through examining the results all variables are found to be integrated of order one. The long run relationship has been examined between real effective exchange rate and Dubai crude oil price in case of all exchange rate regimes with the use of regime dummies and interaction terms except for no regime, two-tier exchange rate regime and unified exchange rate regime. Similarly between real effective exchange rate and interest rate differential long run relationship has been examined in all the exchange rate regimes. Long run and dynamic result has also been detected except for interest rate differential with the use of exogenous exchange rate regime dummies. Oil price impacting exchange rate positively in both long and short run, while interest rate differential negatively effects exchange rate in long run. Through examining the results for impact of exchange rate regime switching on exchange rate, during 1970-2000 structural shifts were causing the change in exchange rate regimes with depreciation being high during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Ahmed, Shujaat & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "The Effect of Oil Prices and Regime Switches on Real Effective Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Markov Regime Switching Approach," MPRA Paper 66872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66872
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Syed Shujaat, 2019. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rate with Impact of Pre-Dollar and Post-Dollar Regime Dummies," MPRA Paper 92313, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest Rate Rarity; Exchange Rate Regime; Regime Switching; Structural Shift; Cointegration; Monthly Unit Root;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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