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Foreign exchange markets and oil prices in Asia

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  • Narayan, Seema

Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether oil price can predict exchange rate returns for 14 Asian countries. A new GLS-based time series predictive regression model proposed by Westerlund and Narayan (WN, 2012) is used. The main finding is that higher oil price leads to future depreciation of the Vietnamese dong but future appreciations of the local currencies of Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Hong Kong. A comparison of the widely used Lewellen (2004) and WN (2012) estimators show that both provide similar results in in-sample analysis, although WN is relatively superior at longer horizons in out-of-sample analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Seema, 2013. "Foreign exchange markets and oil prices in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 41-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:28:y:2013:i:c:p:41-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2013.06.003
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    Cited by:

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    4. Khalid M. Kisswani, 2016. "Does oil price variability affect ASEAN exchange rates? Evidence from panel cointegration test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(20), pages 1831-1839, April.
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Ahmed, Huson Ali, 2014. "Importance of skewness in decision making: Evidence from the Indian stock exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 260-269.
    6. Seema Wati Narayan & Sahminan, 2018. "Has Fintech Influenced Indonesia’S Exchange Rate And Inflation?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(2), pages 177-190, October.
    7. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.
    8. Rabeya Khatoon & Md Emran Hasan & Md Wahid Ferdous Ibon & Shahidul Islam & Jeenat Mehareen & Rubaiya Murshed & Md Nahid Ferdous Pabon & Md. Jillur Rahman & Musharrat Shabnam Shuchi, 2022. "Aggregation, asymmetry, and common factors for Bangladesh’s exchange rate–trade balance relation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2739-2770, June.
    9. Mohamed Albaity & Hasan Mustafa, 2018. "International and Macroeconomic Determinants of Oil Price: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 69-81.
    10. Jiang, Yong & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Narayan, Seema & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2022. "Heterogeneity dependence between oil prices and exchange rate: Evidence from a parametric test of Granger causality in quantiles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Pham, Thai-Binh & Sala, Hector, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price and risk-premium shocks on Vietnam: Evidence from an over-identifying SVAR analysis," MPRA Paper 96873, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jul 2019.
    12. Arshad, Shaista & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Haroon, Omair & Mehmood, Fahad & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Are oil prices efficient?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 362-370.
    13. Sakib Bin Amin & Noshin Nawal Audry & Ahmed Farah Ulfat, 2021. "The Nexus Between Oil Price Shock and the Exchange Rate in Bangladesh," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 427-435.
    14. Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cunado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Oil Price and Exchange Rate Behaviour of the BRICS for Over a Century," Working Papers 202064, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Oloko, Tirimisiyu O., 2024. "Technology shocks and crude oil market connection: The role of climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Abdullahi Musa & Afees A. Salisu & Saleh Abulbashar & Chinecherem D. Okoronkwo, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty and real exchange rate in a global VAR framework: a note," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(4), pages 704-712, October.
    17. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2015. "Interactions between oil and financial markets — Do conditions of financial stress matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 160-175.
    18. Yijin He & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2019. "Conditional Dependence between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates in BRICS Countries: An Application of the Copula-GARCH Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-25, June.
    19. Bwo-Nung Huang & Chi-Chuan Lee & Yu-Fang Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2021. "Dynamic linkage between oil prices and exchange rates: new global evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 719-742, August.
    20. Heru wahyudi & R. Weddie Andriyanto & Armeita Tresnaningtyas & Kamadie Sumanda & Widia Anggi Palupi, 2023. "Analysis of Oil Price and Exchange Rate in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 27-33, March.
    21. Seema Narayan & Tri Tung Nguyen, 2019. "Are Exports More Responsive to Clean or Dirty Energy? The Case of Vietnam’s Exports to 54 Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, April.
    22. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Eki Rahman, R. & Setiawan, Iwan, 2019. "Bitcoin price growth and Indonesia's monetary system," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 364-376.
    23. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Elian, Mohammad I., 2021. "Analyzing the (a)symmetric impacts of oil price, economic policy uncertainty, and global geopolitical risk on exchange rate," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Oil prices; Asia; Endogeneity; Heteroskedasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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