IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/65438.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The baby boom, baby busts, and the role of grandmothers in childcare

Author

Listed:
  • Goksel, Türkmen
  • Gurdal, Mehmet Y.
  • Orman, Cuneyt

Abstract

Studies in family economics and anthropology suggest that grandmothers are a highly valuable source of childcare assistance. As such, the availability of grandmothers affects the cost of having children, and hence the fertility decisions of young parents. In this paper, we develop a simple model to assess the fertility implications of the fluctuations in both output (as argued by demographers) and grandmother-availability induced child-care costs over the period of 1920-1970. The model does a good job of mimicking the bust-boom-bust pattern during this period. When the child-care cost channel is shut down, the model’s performance weakens significantly; in particular, it fails altogether to capture the bust in the 1960’s.

Suggested Citation

  • Goksel, Türkmen & Gurdal, Mehmet Y. & Orman, Cuneyt, 2014. "The baby boom, baby busts, and the role of grandmothers in childcare," MPRA Paper 65438, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65438
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65438/1/MPRA_paper_65438.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristen Hawkes, 2004. "The grandmother effect," Nature, Nature, vol. 428(6979), pages 128-129, March.
    2. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Larry Jones & Alice Schoonbrodt, 2016. "Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 157-178, October.
    4. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2005. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 183-207, March.
    5. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, January.
    6. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    7. Daniela Del Boca & Marilena Locatelli & Daniela Vuri, 2005. "Child-Care Choices by Working Mothers: The Case of Italy," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 453-477, December.
    8. Rachel Connelly, 1992. "Self-employment and providing child care," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 29(1), pages 17-29, February.
    9. Jones, Larry & Schoonbroodt, Alice, 2007. "Baby busts and baby booms: the response of fertility to shocks in dynastic models," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 706, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    10. David Blau & Philip Robins, 1991. "Child care demand and labor supply of young mothers over time," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 28(3), pages 333-351, August.
    11. Klerman, Jacob Alex & Leibowitz, Arleen, 1990. "Child Care and Women's Return to Work after Childbirth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 284-288, May.
    12. Edwin van Gameren & Ingrid Ooms, 2009. "Childcare and labor force participation in the Netherlands: the importance of attitudes and opinions," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 395-421, December.
    13. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay Maoz, 2006. "The Baby Boom and World War II: The Role of Labor Market Experience," 2006 Meeting Papers 216, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Arleen Leibowitz & Jacob Alex Klerman & Linda J. Waite, 1992. "Employment of New Mothers and Child Care Choice: Differences by Children's Age," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 27(1), pages 112-133.
    15. John W. Kendrick, 1973. "Postwar Productivity Trends in the United States, 1948–1969," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend73-1, January.
    16. Solon, Gary, 1992. "Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 393-408, June.
    17. Gronau, Reuben, 1973. "The Intrafamily Allocation of Time: The Value of the Housewives' Time," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(4), pages 634-651, September.
    18. Heckman, James J, 1974. "Shadow Prices, Market Wages, and Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(4), pages 679-694, July.
    19. Mirkka Lahdenperä & Virpi Lummaa & Samuli Helle & Marc Tremblay & Andrew F. Russell, 2004. "Fitness benefits of prolonged post-reproductive lifespan in women," Nature, Nature, vol. 428(6979), pages 178-181, March.
    20. Larry Jones & Alice Schoonbrodt, 2016. "Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 157-178, October.
    21. Zimmerman, David J, 1992. "Regression toward Mediocrity in Economic Stature," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 409-429, June.
    22. Karen Mason & Karen Kuhlthau, 1992. "The perceived impact of child care costs on women’s labor supply and fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 29(4), pages 523-543, November.
    23. Yasuoka, Masaya & Miyake, Atsushi, 2010. "Change in the transition of the fertility rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 78-80, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Orman, Cuneyt & Goksel, Turkmen & Gurdal, Mehmet Y, 2011. "The Baby Boom, Baby Busts, and Grandmothers," MPRA Paper 28782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay D. Maoz, 2015. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 1031-1073.
    3. Nico Voigtl?nder & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2013. "How the West "Invented" Fertility Restriction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2227-2264, October.
    4. Kai Zhao, 2014. "War Finance and the Baby Boom," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 459-473, July.
    5. Shoumitro Chatterjee & Tom S. Vogl, 2016. "Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run," Working Papers sc_tv_growth_fertility.pd, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    6. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt, 2005. "From Busts to Booms in Babies and Goodies," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000379, UCLA Department of Economics.
    7. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    8. Gori, Luca & Sodini, Mauro, 2021. "A Contribution To The Theory Of Fertility And Economic Development," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 753-775, April.
    9. Michele Tertilt & Alice Schoonbroodt, 2016. "Parental Control and Fertility History," 2016 Meeting Papers 1009, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Bastien Chabé-Ferret & Paula Eugenia Gobbi, 2018. "Economics Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom," Working Papers ECARES 2018-19, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Kai(Jackie) Zhao, 2009. "War Debt and the Baby Boom," 2009 Meeting Papers 856, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Masako Kimura & Daishin Yasui, 2010. "The Galor–Weil gender-gap model revisited: from home to market," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 323-351, December.
    13. Liu, Xiying, 2015. "Optimal population and policy implications," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005546, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2017. "Optimal fertility under age-dependent labour productivity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 621-646, April.
    15. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2015. "Fertility and Childlessness in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1852-1882, June.
    16. Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, 2011. "Optimal fertility during World War I," MPRA Paper 35709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jan Ondrich & C. Spiess & Qing Yang & Gert Wagner, 2003. "The Liberalization of Maternity Leave Policy and the Return to Work after Childbirth in Germany," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 77-110, January.
    18. Zvi Eckstein & Osnat Lifshitz, 2011. "Dynamic Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1675-1726, November.
    19. Marla Ripoll & Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2011. "A Contribution to the Economic Theory of Fertility," 2011 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Bellou, Andriana & Cardia, Emanuela, 2014. "Baby-Boom, Baby-Bust and the Great Depression," IZA Discussion Papers 8727, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; baby boom; baby bust; female labor-force participation; grandmother availability for childcare.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.